In a paper released by the Goldwater Institute on December 18, 2008, "A Fresh Start for Arizona: Proposals for Closing a Billion-Dollar Budget Gap," Byron Schlomach puts forth recommendations for closing the deficit in the state government general fund. The following notes are an attempt to illustrate the consequences of the spending reductions recommended by Dr. Schlomach, along with some considerations about the philosophy apparently embodied in the recommendations.

In "Roadmap to Arizona's Economic Recovery," a general fund revenue forecast is presented which includes proposed changes to the revenue system. If the proposed changes are backed out of these figures, the baseline forecast can be obtained. This addendum provides detail on the Roadmap's revenue projection. the three key points are: 1) Arizona's economy is highly cyclical, growing much faster than the nation during economic expansions; 2) Revenues everywhere, but especially in Arizona, given its revenue structure, are much more cyclical than the overall economy; 3) the revenue forecast in the Roadmap is actually conservative. Revenues relative to the size of the economy remain below the historical norm, even in fiscal year 2015.

The initial $1.4 billion construction investment results in an immediate addition of $828 million to GSP and $700 million in labor income after controlling for resource and material acquisition from out-of-state sources. The in-state activity induces additional GSP generation of $1.1 billion and $711 million in labor income as the direct effects ripple through the Arizona economy.

This brief report provides conceptual perspectives on public investment using debt financing. Empirical evidence of the relationship between public investment and economic activity is provided, showing that moderate levels of debt do not impair economic growth and may provide a stimulus to growth. Arizona's public debt currently is low relative to national standards. Related to this low debt, public investment in infrastructure has fallen behind the state's population and economic growth over the last 15 years. Because of low interest rates and a construction slump that will reduce construction costs, current conditions are ideal for public investment using debt financing.