This year, Arizona Directions assesses the health of both ends of the P-20 spectrum: early childcare and education and the high school /postsecondary-to-industry nexus. Both are viewed through the lens of Arizona’s current competitive position and its trajectory through the broader economic landscape. How well does Arizona regulate, promote and ensure equitable access to quality early childcare and to programs that help children enter Kindergarten ready to learn? Does Arizona’s production of graduates and skilled workers align with current and projected industry needs? In other words, are we setting our children up to succeed in the new global economy? At the same time, are we creating a talent pool that will help Arizona stand out as the place to start and grow a business? Arizona Directions’ data-driven approach enables Arizonans to step back and examine the evidence without the distraction of clashing political rhetoric. The report is designed to create a common reference point for civil discourse and post-partisan, collaborative approaches to improving Arizona’s competitiveness. Still, the data are merely the kindling. Many minds are needed to stoke the fire and convert its energy into real-world results.

Over 92,000 people between the ages of 16 and 24 in metro Phoenix who are neither working nor in school present a staggering challenge to the area. These Opportunity Youth (OY) have a lifetime taxpayer burden of $27.3 billion and a lifetime social burden of $218.5 billion. Nationally, the 6.7 million Opportunity Youth have a potential taxpayer burden of $1.56 trillion and an aggregate social burden of $4.75 trillion. Figures like this signal a clear call to action. National and local businesses, along with leading academic institutions have the opportunity to emerge as leaders in decreasing the taxpayer and social costs of OY while simultaneously helping their own bottom line. The opportunity of a collaboration between leading business and leading academic institutions on the issue of OY creates a win-win for the national and state economy as well as the welfare of all citizens.

In spring 1998, 1,057 10th-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 10th-grade students in 1997. Data indicated that, in both years, nearly all students had at least an idea of their career area of interest; gender differences were observed in students' selections of career interests. Student participation in activities increased. Statistically significant differences in participation by sex were evident: more girls reported learning about careers in class and participating in volunteer activities; and more boys participated in internships with pay, worked for pay in a job unrelated to their careers, and had business mentors. The share of students who had selected a career interest increased as participation rose. All 14 activities were at least "somewhat" helpful to students in making career selections. In both years, students ranked family, teachers, and friends most highly as influencing career interests. One-fourth of students in 1998 compared to one-third of students in 1997 indicated they never received career guidance at school. Less than one-half of students were aware of courses related to career interests; even fewer actually took a course related to their interests.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying tenth grade students. Thus, the survey was designed to assess the extent to which Arizona tenth grade students have selected career majors, planned a course of study for high school and beyond, and received adult guidance related to careers. As part of the evaluation, the intent was to look at the extent to which career preparation and work experiences truly are system-wide and impact students. In contrast, the purpose was not to evaluate whether STW program participants are receiving school-based learning components.

Tenth-grade students in Arizona school to work (STW) regional partnerships were polled in 1997, 1998, and 1999, to determine whether systemic change was occurring across the state. Study results were mixed. Three activities increased significantly over the baseline year: class projects, computer use, and volunteerism. The use of career inventories declined over the same period. The role of adults in helping students explore career choices remained relatively stable. Further, the number of students who had some idea of their career interests had not changed significantly. Gender differences still existed and were largely unchanged. Fewer students reported taking courses related to their career interests. The relationship of participation in career-related activities to an ability to state a career interest continued to be strong. Students felt job shadowing, business mentors, and internships would be most helpful. However, fewer students participated in these activities. The participating students were better able to articulate their career interests and, in general, had more frequent and positive attitudes about participation in STW. Statewide programs reported positive student outcomes as a result of STW activities. Evidence of systemic change was beginning to be seen. Most significantly, class projects, computer use, and volunteer projects showed consistent gains over the three years.

In a rapidly growing desert metropolis such as Phoenix, the question of which water conservation measures and factors actually save water and which do not is an obviously important one. The water-related decisions made today and in the years to come will have lasting impact on the future of this area, including upon its sustainability. Estimates from the City of Phoenix suggest that, in non-SRP-areas, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025--absent droughts or intervention.

This report documents and analyzes the results of a multivariate regression analysis designed to estimate the effects on residential, single-family water consumption of a host of factors, particularly water conservation policies.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying seventh grade students regarding career awareness and career exploration and counseling in order to help students who may be interested to identify, and select or reconsider, their interests, goals and career majors, including those options that may not be traditional for their gender, race, or ethnicity.

In spring 1998, 1,020 seventh-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 seventh-grade students in 1997. Data showed that student participation in activities increased. Top-ranked activities were the same in both years: classroom speakers, discussions with adults, class projects, field trips, and job shadowing. In both years, more than 60 percent said at least one activity helped them think about choosing a career; roughly 35 percent indicated having a definite idea of what they want to do in the future; and student participation in various activities was positively related to their ability to define a career interest. In both years, mentoring by other adults was up, whereas mentoring by school personnel had decreased. Students who talked to adults about their careers were significantly more likely to have identified a career interest. In both years, fewer boys were apt to report any adult talked to them about careers. The number of students who planned to take classes in high school that teach job skills showed a statistically significant decrease. Girls were more certain they would take classes. In both years, about one-third of students agreed some jobs are best for women, and some for men; boys agreed most often.

Arizona seventh-grade students were polled in 1997, 1998, and 1999, to determine the extent of their participation in career awareness and exploration activities, the impact that the activities have had, and how they were delivered. Survey results provided evidence of systemic change in the regional school-to-work (STW) partnerships. Further, data suggested that the way career awareness activities are delivered makes a difference in their effectiveness. The comparative survey conducted in 1999 supported the contention that STW students differed from their classmates and that STW made a difference for students. The regional analysis compared randomly selected classrooms over 3 years. Changes between 1997 and 1999 were measured in participation metrics and the role of adult mentors. The relative share of students who had at least some idea of their career interests was consistently high (86.8 percent). The mean number of STW activities per pupil increased significantly and the share of students participating in five types of activities rose. A key finding supported over the 3-year period was that students who participated in a variety of activities were better able to identify their career interests. The role of adult mentors intensified. The share of students who talked to adults about careers, and who discussed careers with a counselor, increased significantly between 1997-99.