Widespread obesity in the U.S. is a relatively recent phenomenon, reaching epidemic proportions only in the last 15 years. However, existing research shows that while calorie expenditure through physical activity has not changed appreciably since 1980, calorie consumption has risen dramatically. Consequently, any explanation of obesity must address the reason why consumers tend to overeat in spite of somewhat obvious future health implications. This study tests for an addiction to food nutrients as a potential explanation for the obesity epidemic. Specifically, we use a random coefficients (mixed) logit model applied to household scanner data to test a multivariate version of the rational addiction model of Becker and Murphy and Chaloupka. We find evidence of a rational addiction to all nutrients – protein, fat and carbohydrates – as well as to sodium, but particularly strong evidence of a forward-looking addiction to carbohydrates. The implication of this finding is that price-based policies – sin taxes or produce subsidies that change the expected future costs and benefits of consuming carbohydrate-intensive foods – may be effective in controlling excessive nutrient intake.

Supermarket retailers make strategic pricing decisions in a high-frequency, repeated game environment both in buying and selling fresh produce. In this context, there is some question as to whether a non-cooperative equilibrium can emerge that produces margins above the competitive level. Supermarket pricing results from tacitly collusive equilibria supported by trigger price strategies played in upstream markets. Upstream activities are, in turn, driven by periodic retail price promotions. We test this hypothesis using a sample of fresh produce pricing data from 20 supermarket chains in markets distributed throughout the U.S. Our results support the existence of tacitly collusive non-cooperative equilibria in upstream and downstream markets.

Many public programs promote diets rich in fruits and vegetables based on evidence on the derived health benefits. Sill, produce consumption in the U.S. lags behind other nations, even its most culturally similar neighbor–Canada. This study uses a structural latent variable model to test the role quality and health information play in explaining observed differences in produce consumption. The Alchian-Allen effect predicts that higher quality, higher absolute margin produce will be exported, suggesting that quality may be an important demand factor in importing nations such as Canada. The results show that dietary health information is significant in expanding demands. Quality also promotes fruit consumption in Canada.

Native American obesity and the associated health conditions are generally thought to result in part from a genetic predisposition to overeating fats and carbohydrates, called the “thrifty gene.” Although coined by nutritional scientists, this study maintains the origin of the thrifty gene lies in economics. Apparently harmful overconsumption and addiction constitute economically rational behavior if the increment to current utility from adding to one’s stock of “consumption capital” is greater than the present value of utility lost in the future due to ill health and the costs of withdrawal. Tests of these conditions for such “rational addiction” are conducted using two-stage household production approach. The results obtained by estimating this model in a panel of Native and non-Native supermarket scanner data show that both Natives and non-Natives tend to be inherently forward-looking in their nutrient choices, but Natives tend to have far higher long-run demand elasticities for carbohydrates compared to non-Natives. Consequently, reductions in real food prices over time, primarily among foods that are dense in simple carbohydrates, leads Native Americans to over-consume potentially harmful nutrients relative to their traditional diet.

The Lanchester model of strategic interaction typically considers only two-firm rivalry and one strategic tool. This paper presents an alternative that considers rivalry among several firms using multiple tools. Marketing decisions are dynamically optimal and use equations of motion for market share that are consistent with optimal consumer choice. Using a single-market case study that consists of five years of monthly data on ready to eat cereal sales, advertising, product development investments and new product introductions, we test our model against a similar Lanchester specification. Non-nested specification tests fail to reject the proposed model, but reject the Lanchester alternative.

“Commodity promotion” consists of many activities, each designed to contribute to a consumer’s product knowledge or influence tastes. However, both knowledge and tastes are unobservable, or latent, variables influencing demand. This paper specifies a dynamic structural model of fresh fruit demand that treats promotion and other socioeconomic variables as "causal" variables influencing these latent variables. Estimating this state-space model using a Kalman filter approach provides estimates of both the system parameters and a latent variable series. The results show that these latent effects contribute positively to apple and other fruit consumption, while reducing banana consumption.

A structural latent variable model of apple variety demand is used to analyze the effect of variety specific newspaper advertisement characteristics on variety attraction (preferences), and in turn on variety demand. The influence of advertisement size, the use of color and the Washington apple logo were analyzed. The estimated variety attraction variable is important in explaining demand. Model specifications which exclude this variable tend to understate demand elasticities. Advertisement size has a positive impact on Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala sales. Red Delicious sales are positively influenced by color ads, but negatively affected by ads with the Washington apple logo.

The Fuji apple variety is relatively new in the U.S. As a new product, questions concern the relative impact of consumer learning by experience, by variety-specific promotion, or by generic apple promotion. A two-stage (LES/LAIDS) model incorporating both types of promotion is used to estimate the effect of generic and variety specific promotion, as well as consumer experience, on the demand for Fuji apples. Estimates show each to have a positive impact, and also show new or specialty apple varieties to be relatively price inelastic, but income elastic. Grower returns to promotion are calculated with an equilibrium displacement model of price changes and producer surplus. Changes in producer surplus provide a base-scenario benefit:cost ratio of 14.73.

Marketing research in consumer packaged goods shows that consumers’ brand choices, category choices, and purchase volumes are all affected by different factors and in different ways by pricepromotions
and advertising. Research also suggests that brand-loyalty, purchase rates, and inventory behavior are important determinants of category choice. These findings are likely to be true of apples as well.