On March 20, 2003, Governor Janet Napolitano established the Governor’s Drought Task Force to address the drought issues facing all Arizonans. The Task Force made several recommendations, documented in the "Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan", including that the Governor seek legislative authority for the Arizona Department of Water Resources to require water systems to develop a drought plan. The plan would include mitigation strategies, including a water conservation plan to reduce vulnerability to drought and plan for drought response actions. In addition, the Governor’s Drought Task Force recommended legislative authorization for ADWR to require all water systems to provide consistent and coordinated water supply information to ADWR. The Arizona Legislature passed House Bill 2277 during the 2005 legislative session, creating a requirement for community water systems to develop and submit a System Water Plan to ADWR. The development of these plans is an important step toward improving water resource management planning at both the state and local levels. They will enable the state to identify data gaps and gather much needed information.

“What about the water?” was one of the questions Morrison Institute for Public Policy asked in its 2008 study, "Megapolitan: Arizona’s Sun Corridor". That report looked at the potential growth of the Sun Corridor as Tucson and Phoenix merge into one continuous area for economic and demographic purposes.

With its brief review of the water situation in urban Arizona, "Megapolitan" left a number of questions unanswered. This report will consider questions like these in more detail in order to examine the Sun Corridor’s water future. This topic has received less sophisticated public discussion than might be expected in a desert state. Arizona’s professional water managers feel they are relatively well prepared for the future and would like to be left alone to do their job. Elected officials and economic-development professionals have sometimes avoided discussing water for fear of reinforcing a negative view of Arizona. This report seeks to contribute to this understanding, and to a more open and informed conversation about the relationship of water and future growth.

This report follows The Coming of Age report produced in 2002 by some of the principals involved in this project, and published by St. Luke’s Health Initiatives. That research showed that Arizona had much to do to get ready for the baby boomer age wave. The results of Unlocking Resilience from new survey data, interviews, and secondary research indicates Arizona still has much to do to prepare for aging and must make concrete policy decisions about aging.

In a rapidly growing desert metropolis such as Phoenix, the question of which water conservation measures and factors actually save water and which do not is an obviously important one. The water-related decisions made today and in the years to come will have lasting impact on the future of this area, including upon its sustainability. Estimates from the City of Phoenix suggest that, in non-SRP-areas, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025--absent droughts or intervention.

This report documents and analyzes the results of a multivariate regression analysis designed to estimate the effects on residential, single-family water consumption of a host of factors, particularly water conservation policies.