In a paper released by the Goldwater Institute on December 18, 2008, "A Fresh Start for Arizona: Proposals for Closing a Billion-Dollar Budget Gap," Byron Schlomach puts forth recommendations for closing the deficit in the state government general fund. The following notes are an attempt to illustrate the consequences of the spending reductions recommended by Dr. Schlomach, along with some considerations about the philosophy apparently embodied in the recommendations.

In "Roadmap to Arizona's Economic Recovery," a general fund revenue forecast is presented which includes proposed changes to the revenue system. If the proposed changes are backed out of these figures, the baseline forecast can be obtained. This addendum provides detail on the Roadmap's revenue projection. the three key points are: 1) Arizona's economy is highly cyclical, growing much faster than the nation during economic expansions; 2) Revenues everywhere, but especially in Arizona, given its revenue structure, are much more cyclical than the overall economy; 3) the revenue forecast in the Roadmap is actually conservative. Revenues relative to the size of the economy remain below the historical norm, even in fiscal year 2015.

Arizonans face the twin problems of recovering from a deep and long economic recession and dealing with significant fiscal imbalances in state and local governments. This report details a roadmap to address both the short-term and long-term economic and fiscal issues. The roadmap addresses economic needs by proposing actions in the near term to stimulate the economy and to provide jobs. In the longer term, the economic focus of the plan shifts from job creation to job quality. The roadmap also addresses the state's fiscal difficulties in both the short and long term.