For those interested in one of the most extreme state tax and expenditure limitations, TABOR – Colorado’s initiative that limits the funding of most expenditures to annual revenue growth restrained by the sum of annual population growth and inflation rates – would seem to be exactly the right choice. To some, the initiative simply limits government to spend within its means. However, the analysis in this paper reveals that, true to the language in the 1992 Colorado initiative, TABOR limits government growth, and over time the public sector, as a share of the overall economy, declines sharply – crowding out opportunities for investments in strategic initiatives or opportunities for tax reform that may be popular with large voter constituencies or the business community. Advocates point out that provisions in TABOR do allow for voter overrides, but these are costly in both time and money, and until the overrides take place, government is
hamstrung. A simpler, more efficient alternative would be to elect fiscally conservative legislators and hold them accountable for prudent fiscal decisions that strike the right balance between a tax base conductive to economic growth and strategic investments that provide public sector infrastructure, nurturing the business climate and promoting the health and well-being of the citizenry. The paper first outlines the TABOR amendment in Colorado and examines its fiscal consequences for that state. It then examines the potential impact of a TABOR in Arizona.

This paper explores whether a knowledge economy explanation for economic growth seems to fit with the growth experience of the Sunbelt during the 1990s. The issue is addressed through analysis of two different datasets. First, the education and income characteristics of the people moving to the Sunbelt region are examined using migration data from the 2000 census. Then we look at the link between the knowledge economy metric of the share of college educated adults and economic growth in the Sunbelt in the 1990s using data for 116 Sunbelt MSAs.

This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

Governor Jan Brewer signed into law the Fiscal 2012 budget that eliminates all child care subsidies in Arizona. While the full impact of that action won’t be felt for weeks and months after the law takes effect July 1, Budget Trax has measured what sharply reduced funding in recent years has meant to working parents, children and businesses, as well as to the potential impact to matching federal funding.

Digital technology is everywhere, revolutionizing how we live, work and play. Yet, as a tool for educating our children, it is conspicuously absent in K-12 classrooms. Textbooks and lectures are still the norm, making the classroom one of the last frontiers of digital technology. This report seeks to answer some of the key questions about digital learning. What is digital learning? Where are we as a country and, in particular, in Arizona, with digital learning? What opportunities does digital learning present? And how can we make the best use of it to help educate our children?

As you will read in this report, digital learning is not a panacea. At its best, digital technology can be a tool to support students and teachers in the learning process. We don’t yet have all the answers. There are plenty of instances we can point to where digital learning efforts may have had disappointing results. Having said that, we believe that digital learning holds great promise in the field of education. It is where digital technology may achieve its greatest possible benefits and impact.

Does H20 = Growth in Arizona? That is how many people view the water-growth equation -- any introduction of "new" water supplies inevitably stimulates population growth and economic activity. However, the report by Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Growth on the Coconino Plateau, offers some surprisingly contrary conclusions. Completed on behalf of Arizona Department of Water Resources and the Coconino Plateau Watershed, this document is relevant for all regions of rural Arizona. Among the findings: - Some rural areas in the West have constructed major water supply projects only to see most of their towns languish, not prosper. - New water infrastructure in growing rural counties hasn't affected the size so much as the pattern of new development. - Leapfrog sprawl into unincorporated areas has been discouraged in regions where cities and towns hold control over the distribution of new water supplies. Bottom line, water won't automatically produce population growth. But planning for water - how it is supplied and governed - does offer a useful tool for managing future growth. Moreover, it can provide some measure of protection for the environment. We believe this report has important application well beyond northern Arizona. By providing original research and analysis on the water-growth equation, this report helps resolve one of Arizona's most critical issues. As a result, public policy discussions in the future will be able to focus on the state's most important growth drivers and how they can be managed.

This report profiles Yavapai County’s senior industries, beginning with a brief overview of senior industries components and a listing of significant findings of the study. In following sections, the report presents more detailed information on the age group characteristics of county residents, the spending patterns of seniors, the economic composition and relative size of senior industries, and the dynamics and requirements for growth of senior industries. In its conclusion, the report presents a menu of options for strengthening senior industries in Yavapai County. All analysis is based on the latest available demographic and economic data at the time of writing, as well as primary and secondary research performed by Morrison Institute for Public Policy in the fall of 2001.

What do we mean by "shoes waiting to drop?" We mean the trends that are already well under way — but that we can't quite see yet. These trends could overwhelm us if we don't spot them now and aggressively use our knowledge to plot our course for the future. The five "shoes" highlighted in the report are: A Talent Shake Up; Latino Education Dilemma; A Fuzzy Economic Identity; Lost Stewardship; and The Revenue Sieve.

This is the fourth in a series of briefs in which Morrison Institute for Public Policy will report on selected aspects of Arizona’s child welfare system. Morrison Institute’s first white paper discussed the less visible but more common side of child maltreatment: neglect. The second white paper examined family conditions that can influence a family’s subtle “drift” towards unsafe situations that often correlate with neglect, as well as how different types of prevention might help interrupt the “drift into failure.” The third paper analyzed Arizona Department of Child Safety data to identify the prevalence of various types of neglect in Arizona reports. This paper highlights some key conclusions from the neglect analysis and identifies future areas for study and analysis as part of the Spotlight on Arizona’s Kids project. Future papers will research, analyze and discuss prevention services in Arizona and elsewhere, with an emphasis on best practices. These collective efforts are intended to help state leaders, child advocates and others discuss and identify the most-effective child abuse and neglect prevention strategies. Spotlight on Arizona’s Kids is funded by the Arizona Community Foundation

This year, Arizona Directions assesses the health of both ends of the P-20 spectrum: early childcare and education and the high school /postsecondary-to-industry nexus. Both are viewed through the lens of Arizona’s current competitive position and its trajectory through the broader economic landscape. How well does Arizona regulate, promote and ensure equitable access to quality early childcare and to programs that help children enter Kindergarten ready to learn? Does Arizona’s production of graduates and skilled workers align with current and projected industry needs? In other words, are we setting our children up to succeed in the new global economy? At the same time, are we creating a talent pool that will help Arizona stand out as the place to start and grow a business? Arizona Directions’ data-driven approach enables Arizonans to step back and examine the evidence without the distraction of clashing political rhetoric. The report is designed to create a common reference point for civil discourse and post-partisan, collaborative approaches to improving Arizona’s competitiveness. Still, the data are merely the kindling. Many minds are needed to stoke the fire and convert its energy into real-world results.