In support of the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, a review was conducted of the current state of weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasting for the Southwest. A key element of the review was a workshop that examined the availability, use, accuracy, and value of forecasts, with participants consisting primarily of agency personnel involved in operational forecasting via directly issuing forecasts, providing key data for making forecasts, or serving as a key link for communicating forecasts. The broad range of forecast products encompasses myriad variables, time-scales from minutes to seasons, and lead-times from minutes to over a year. Current forecast products and techniques are reviewed, and implications for use in decision making are discussed. The forecast review identified needs for additional research to be addressed by the CLIMAS Project, including local evaluation of monthly and seasonal climate outlooks, retrospective evaluation of operational water supply outlooks, hindcast reanalysis of probabilistic water supply outlook techniques, and incorporation of climate outlooks into statistical water supply outlook techniques.

Tribes have a direct government-to-government relationship with the U.S. government wherein no decisions about their lands and people are made without their consent. In Arizona, for example, American Indian reservations occupy nearly 30 percent of the land. Native Americans have a legal and moral claim to significant quantities of water as well. Because of their special legal standing in the United States, tribes are not just another group of stakeholders to be considered in the research and policy process. The purpose of this paper is to provide a legal and political background for interactions between the United States and tribal governments and provide models for those interactions, with special attention to research and outreach.

The research presented here documents institutional and organizational factors affecting fire management on tribal lands. Two case studies of fires occurring on tribal lands in Arizona provide insights into how these factors converged to influence the course of events. This study considers historic as well as current conditions and events because these affect whether or not people are receptive to information, to planning, and to working together. Though it focuses on decision making within tribes and agencies responsible for tribal lands, its findings are relevant for other locations as well.