Education decisions are among the most important choices people ever make. So we were surprised and disappointed to see an article so loosely reasoned and reckless in its conclusions as “Five Reasons to Skip College” published in Blank Slate at Forbes.com on April 18, 2006. The article never provides a numerical assessment of the costs and benefits of going to college, uses statistics inappropriately and in a way that biases the conclusions against college, contains conceptual errors on how to evaluate the return on a college education, and greatly exaggerates the only substantive criticism of typical evaluations of the financial worth of a college degree.

The Phoenix metropolitan area is new by national standards, having developed primarily since World War II and particularly since 1970. However, settlement patterns were established in the 1800s, in part due to topographic features such as water courses and mountains. The war effort during World War II stimulated the growth of the Valley. After the war, a combination of events led to much faster growth. These included the desire of ex-servicemen stationed in the area during the war to return; improvements in air conditioning; charter government in Phoenix, which allowed a small pro-growth business group to gain power; and
aerospace and electronics firms siting facilities, in part because of the federal government’s designation of Fort Huachuca as the principal proving ground for electronic defense equipment. The modern period began around 1970, when a maturing metro area coincided with the baby-boom generation reaching adulthood. The result was even more rapid growth that has continued to the current time. Rapid growth of the Phoenix metro area is expected to continue for at least the next 50 years. Land and water availability should not restrict growth until after the current population of nearly three million exceeds seven million in 2050.

Arizona is one of the states in which the high-wage end of the employment distribution provides a more favorable impression of its job quality than that based on all employment. Thus, Arizona’s subpar job quality is not due to a scarcity of high-wage jobs, but instead results from lesser job quality in the remainder of the employment distribution. In particular, Arizona has an above-average share of very low-paying jobs that serve tourists and seasonal residents. In turn, the low overall average wage in Arizona — 7 percent less than the U.S. average — primarily results from factors other than job quality. The average wage in Arizona is less than the U.S. average in the vast majority of industries and occupations, both high- and low-paying.

Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison Institute for Public Policy. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started.