A number of significant positive and negative economic impacts could result from Pima County's SDCP and related programs, according to an analysis of existing research on large-scale conservation planning undertaken to provide a framework for community decision-making. This report offers no final verdict on the net economic impact of Pima County's current, ambitious initiatives in habitat conservation and growth management. However, it does provide a framework for future assessment and decision-making.

The Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast, which now incorporates the Arizona Blue Chip Forecast, focuses on the changing economies of 12 Western states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. The Western employs the proven accuracy of the consensus forecasting method brought to prominence by the late Robert J. Eggert, often referred to as the "Sage of Sedona." Forecasts are compiled by website editor Lee McPheters, research professor of economics in the W. P. Carey School of Business, who has studied the Western region for over two decades.

The Greater Phoenix Blue Chip provides quarterly consensus projections on general economic indicators and key construction measures from economists and real estate analysts and executives in the Phoenix metropolitan area. The construction forecasts are compiled in cooperation with Elliott D. Pollack and Company, a leading economic and real estate consulting firm based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Published monthly, Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast offers a comprehensive outlook for the Mexican economy; covering 12 macroeconomic variables over a 2 year forecast horizon. Forecasts are provided by leading economists whose individual views are shown together with the average (mean) forecast. In addition, our analysis includes 6 years of historical data for these same variables as well as written analysis, charts and sentiment indicators.

In February of 1998, the Pima County Board of Supervisors launched what has evolved into the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP) -- a comprehensive effort to protect the Sonoran Desert, guide growth and rationalize land development in the metropolitan Tucson region. Proponents of this planning process maintained that the project would reconcile conflicts between human activities and conservation, providing benefits for both wildlife and economic development. Critics, however, have increasingly alleged that implementing such an initiative will adversely affect land and housing markets, increase taxes and create problems of housing affordability. Over time a pressing need has consequently grown for objective information about the possible fiscal and economic impacts of the conservation programs being assembled by Pima County. This report addresses that need. It is a tool in the form of an impartial framework for assessment that government officials, environmentalists, business people and the general public can use for debate and decision-making.

A series of 51 individual “stakeholder” interviews and two focus groups conducted with members of the Pima County business community in fall, 2001, documented significantly divided opinion about the likely economic impacts of the county’s Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP). The results of the stakeholder inquiries were striking. Only one major finding reflected consensus, while several others revealed sharp differences of opinion in the business community about the potential economic impacts of the SDCP and associated initiatives.