The purpose of this study is to build an econometric and demographic model of the Sun Corridor to forecast long-term economic and demographic conditions in the “megapolitan” region. To this end, the study examines the long-term economic and demographic forces that could affect economic development in the 3-county Sun Corridor megapolitan area that includes Maricopa, Pinal and Pima Counties. This information is used to develop a set of realistic economic/demographic scenarios to drive the forecasting model.

Arizona is one of the most highly urbanized states in the nation with 87.5% of the population as of 1990 lives in an urban area. Corporate American views Tucson for tourism and mining. It is also known for aviation, missiles and aerospace; and for its astronomy and optics like Kitt Peak and Mt. Graham observatories. "Economic success will increasingly be determined by how effectively an area can spur technological innovation, entrepreneurship, education, specialized skills, and the transition of all organization -- public and private -- from bureaucratic hierarchies to learning networks."

Mr. Proudfoot, the leading pygmy-owl biologist in the United States, has worked for the last two years to gather and analyze the data that allows us to address issues regarding the genetic viability of ferruginous pygmy-owls in Arizona and to establish a framework for future management efforts. The two major questions addressed are (1) do populations of concern lack genetic variation relative to putative healthy populations, and (2) how unique are geographically distinct populations within a species of special concern?

The demand for new workers in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) occupations in Arizona is a function of net job growth in these occupations in the state and the number of workers leaving STEM jobs in Arizona. Employees may leave their position for various reasons, including to retire, to move out of the state, or to change their profession. The supply of new workers in STEM occupations in Arizona is a function of the number of new college graduates in related majors, the number of workers moving to the state who are qualified to fill STEM jobs, and the number of Arizonans who are qualified to fill STEM jobs moving from a non-STEM to STEM occupation.

Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison Institute for Public Policy. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started.