The La Paz County Comprehensive Plan is the first overall plan for development countywide. Due to the passage of new state requirements and a desire to plan for the future, the La Paz County Board of Supervisors contracted with Partners for Strategic Action, Inc. to develop the county’s first comprehensive plan. The consulting team was directed to solicit broad community participation, study the county planning area, and develop a plan that would be an easy-to-understand policy document that will guide La Paz County’s development in the future.

The purpose of this study is to build an econometric and demographic model of the Sun Corridor to forecast long-term economic and demographic conditions in the “megapolitan” region. To this end, the study examines the long-term economic and demographic forces that could affect economic development in the 3-county Sun Corridor megapolitan area that includes Maricopa, Pinal and Pima Counties. This information is used to develop a set of realistic economic/demographic scenarios to drive the forecasting model.

The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the educational achievement and attainment of Latinos living in Arizona. In short, the educational performance and attainment of Hispanics lags considerably behind that of the state’s non-Hispanic white residents. Moreover, the growth in the number of Hispanics, especially children, has far outpaced that of the non-Hispanic white population, raising the importance of this educational gap. This issue was highlighted in the 2001 Morrison Institute report Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona’s Future.

The specific goal of this report is to assess the future of Hispanic educational performance and attainment in Arizona, but this outlook is dependent to a very sizable extent on the characteristics of the Hispanics living in Arizona. In particular, the educational achievement and attainment of Hispanic immigrants has been substantially less than that of Hispanics born in the United States. Forecasting Hispanic immigration specifically and the characteristics of the Hispanic population generally is extremely difficult for two reasons: severe data limitations, and recent legal and policy changes related to immigration.

Unlike the rest of the Phoenix metropolitan area, population density in central Phoenix dropped during the 1970s and 1980s. The primary cause was a decrease in the number of housing units. Rising vacancy rates contributed, but the increase in vacancy rates was similar to that of the entire metropolitan area. Between 1990 and 1995, population density rose in central Phoenix. A sharp decline in vacancy rates was a major factor in the turnaround, though the vacancy rate decline only matched that of the entire metro area. Another major factor in the increase in density was the rising number of people residing in prisons, homeless shelters, or on the streets.

The age of housing in the Phoenix metropolitan area reflects the mostly steady outward spread of development. Large differences exist across the area in other housing measures. Many of these differences are closely related to geographic variations in household income and in the type of housing. As in the rest of the country, housing affordability in the Phoenix metropolitan area fell substantially in the 1970s. During the 1980s, the change in affordability varied by situation. Affordability rose for the median-income household, especially for homeownership. For those at the low end of the income spectrum, affordability of rental units improved slightly, but affordability of owned units worsened. Data for the 1990s are limited; the affordability of owned units rose for the median-income household, which could afford the median-priced home in 1998. An inadequate supply of very low-cost housing existed in the Phoenix metropolitan area in 1990. Even if low-income households were perfectly matched to low-income housing that they could afford, a little less than 3 percent of all households (about 23,000) could not have found affordable housing. The inadequacy expanded in the 1980s. The percentage of households reporting an unaffordable housing payment was much greater. Considering only low-income households who spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing, about 21 percent of all households had a housing problem related to affordability.

The Phoenix metropolitan area’s “favored quarter” for employment in 1995 – the metro area’s highest employment densities outside the primary core – extended from Chaparral Road in Scottsdale to Baseline Road in Tempe. Downtown and South Scottsdale’s success can be traced to being adjacent to the favored residential quarter that extends from the area around the Phoenix Mountains through north Scottsdale. In the 1990s, the favored employment quarter has been extending north in Scottsdale through the favored residential quarter. The presence of Arizona State University, proximity to Sky Harbor Airport, and access to the region’s first two freeways contributed to the portion of Tempe north of Baseline Road becoming the largest employment center outside of the primary core in Phoenix. Employment also was above average south of Baseline Road, extending into the secondary favored residential quarter of South Tempe and Ahwatukee – Foothills. Considering residential and economic factors, the Phoenix metro area’s favored quarter stretches from north of Squaw Peak in northeast Phoenix through Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and Tempe to south of South Mountain in southeast Phoenix.

The Phoenix metropolitan area is new by national standards, having developed primarily since World War II and particularly since 1970. However, settlement patterns were established in the 1800s, in part due to topographic features such as water courses and mountains. The war effort during World War II stimulated the growth of the Valley. After the war, a combination of events led to much faster growth. These included the desire of ex-servicemen stationed in the area during the war to return; improvements in air conditioning; charter government in Phoenix, which allowed a small pro-growth business group to gain power; and
aerospace and electronics firms siting facilities, in part because of the federal government’s designation of Fort Huachuca as the principal proving ground for electronic defense equipment. The modern period began around 1970, when a maturing metro area coincided with the baby-boom generation reaching adulthood. The result was even more rapid growth that has continued to the current time. Rapid growth of the Phoenix metro area is expected to continue for at least the next 50 years. Land and water availability should not restrict growth until after the current population of nearly three million exceeds seven million in 2050.

“What about the water?” was one of the questions Morrison Institute for Public Policy asked in its 2008 study, "Megapolitan: Arizona’s Sun Corridor". That report looked at the potential growth of the Sun Corridor as Tucson and Phoenix merge into one continuous area for economic and demographic purposes.

With its brief review of the water situation in urban Arizona, "Megapolitan" left a number of questions unanswered. This report will consider questions like these in more detail in order to examine the Sun Corridor’s water future. This topic has received less sophisticated public discussion than might be expected in a desert state. Arizona’s professional water managers feel they are relatively well prepared for the future and would like to be left alone to do their job. Elected officials and economic-development professionals have sometimes avoided discussing water for fear of reinforcing a negative view of Arizona. This report seeks to contribute to this understanding, and to a more open and informed conversation about the relationship of water and future growth.

Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison Institute for Public Policy. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started.