The study had three main goals: (1) to assess the vulnerability of groundwater-dependent agriculture to climate variability, (2) to identify historical and current processes of adaptation to the vagaries of climate in the region— these refer to both system wide adaptations and individual farmer’s adaptations, and, (3) to assess the use of and needs for seasonal climate forecast information in agricultural decision making. The report is targeted at institutional stakeholders (i.e., agricultural extension personnel), physical scientists (particularly climatologists), and policymakers (at the level of NOAA and other federal agencies). Specific recommendations are made to these groups in order to improve the delivery of seasonal forecasts, set research priorities, and inform public policy.

As a major component of the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, this study is part of a larger effort to assess the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate variability and change in the southwestern U.S. As importantly, this assessment seeks to fulfill the project’s larger mission of working directly with communities to improve their ability to respond adequately and appropriately to climatic events and climate change. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the utility of a rapid ethnographic approach for (1) conducting a community-level assessment of climate related vulnerability and (2) extending the findings to other assessments.

Most of the state's cattle ranches rely solely on rain-fed range to support their herds. Drought conditions can result in significant declines in forage production and nutritional quality. Failure to respond to these changes with appropriate management can compound the effects of drought on already stressed vegetation resulting in poor range condition and animal performance. The project discussed in this paper has three broad purposes: first, to compile a profile of Arizona's ranchers, with an emphasis on socioeconomic characteristics of ranchers in the southeastern portion of the state; second, to identify and understand the physical, social, and political-economic factors that make the livelihoods of ranchers vulnerable to climatic variability; and third, to determine whether or not ranchers can mitigate their vulnerability with improved access to information on climate. The project is in its initial stages and thus no conclusive data are available at this time. In this paper we will outline our assumptions in entering the project, our methodology, and some preliminary assessments from our work to date.