Arizona’s vulnerable populations are struggling on a daily basis but usually do so in silence, undetected by traditional radar and rankings, often unaware themselves of their high risk for being pushed or pulled into full crisis. Ineligible for financial assistance under strict eligibility guidelines, they don’t qualify as poor because vulnerable populations are not yet in full crisis. To be clear, this report is not about the “poor,” at least not in the limited sense of the word. It is about our underemployed wage earners, our single-parent households, our deployed or returning military members, our under-educated and unskilled workforce, our debt-ridden neighbors, our uninsured friends, our family members with no savings for an emergency, much less retirement.

As Arizona pulls itself out of the deepest recession that it has faced since the Great Depression, this 105th Arizona Town Hall is convened to examine Arizona’s economy. In Arizona Town Hall’s fifty-two year history, this is the eleventh time citizens from across the state have come together to reflect on the current state of Arizona’s economy and how best to shape its future.

Arizona’s total value of international exports as a share of gross product was 33rd highest among the 50 states and District of Columbia in 2012. Arizona ranked 36th for manufactured goods. In 1997, Arizona had ranked eighth overall and ninth for manufactured goods. The state’s large relative decline in export share can be traced to its sizable relative decrease in its manufacturing sector. In particular, the electronics manufacturing subsector’s share of total GDP has dropped considerably.

Arizona has grown rapidly over the years and our education system has grown in step with the population. But increasing the total budget for education doesn't mean that we have directed more resources to each student. The numbers show that Arizona has one of the lowest per-pupil funding rates in the country. Parties of one faction or another argue endlessly about which numbers to use in comparing Arizona to other states, or even whether such comparisons are possible. What is indisputable is that Arizona ranks in the bottom tier of states in both education spending and in student achievement and that we have made substantial cuts in our funding of both K-12 and higher education since the beginning of the Great Recession.

Assesses the health of both ends of the P-20 spectrum: early childcare and education and the high school/postsecondary-to-industry nexus. Both are viewed through the lens of Arizona's current competitive position and its trajectory through the broader economic landscape. How well does Arizona regulate, promote and ensure equitable access to quality early childcare and to programs that help children enter Kindergarten ready to learn? Does Arizona's production of graduates and skilled workers align with current and projected industry needs?

Arizona faces some big challenges if it is to compete regionally, nationally and globally for the cutting-edge jobs that will help determine our economic future. As hard as state and community leaders are working, the report suggests that Arizona needs even more participation in economic development leadership, more collaboration among economic development groups and a greater sense of urgency. This report identifies a number of important issues that are key to advancing economic development in Arizona.

This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

The biggest economic trend in Arizona over the last decade has been the flat line on various measures of prosperity relative to the national average. Arizona always has been below the national average on measures such as the average wage, earnings per employee, and per capita personal income. However, Arizona compares less favorably now than it did in the 1970s and early 1980s.

The economic underpinnings in Arizona of housing, employment, and financial services have collapsed, as they have almost everywhere else around the nation, albeit deeper here than in most other states. Arizona again must have the wisdom and willpower to rebound. But it will take more than a bold vision, although one is needed. It will take follow-through and collaboration – neither of which have been Arizona’s strong suit in recent years – as well as informed public policy based on what we’ve learned from the past, melded with what we already know about the future. In short, Arizona must prepare itself for the next economy.