The purpose of this paper is to provide background information on trends and possible future changes in urban structure and lifestyles important for planning the development of a parcel of Arizona state trust land known as Superstition Vistas (SV). This parcel, which is located just south of the Superstition Mountains in Pinal County, has an area of 275 square miles—enough land to provide housing for 900,000 new Phoenix metro-area residents at current population densities.

The aspects of future urban living discussed in this paper are those important for land-use planning—density, neighborhood design, transportation demand, etc. Very little attention will be given to the interior of homes. Also, since the SV parcel is currently undeveloped, emphasis will be placed on changes in urban structure that can be accomplished in greenfield developments rather than the in-fill of urban cores.

Between May and July of 1996, members of the council were asked to participate in a series of interviews. The primary purpose of the interviews was to elicit council members' views of and expectations for Arizona's STW initiative. A second reason was to clarify the mission of the council itself. This paper highlights salient points from the interviews. Quotes are used verbatim.

In spring 1998, 1,057 10th-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 10th-grade students in 1997. Data indicated that, in both years, nearly all students had at least an idea of their career area of interest; gender differences were observed in students' selections of career interests. Student participation in activities increased. Statistically significant differences in participation by sex were evident: more girls reported learning about careers in class and participating in volunteer activities; and more boys participated in internships with pay, worked for pay in a job unrelated to their careers, and had business mentors. The share of students who had selected a career interest increased as participation rose. All 14 activities were at least "somewhat" helpful to students in making career selections. In both years, students ranked family, teachers, and friends most highly as influencing career interests. One-fourth of students in 1998 compared to one-third of students in 1997 indicated they never received career guidance at school. Less than one-half of students were aware of courses related to career interests; even fewer actually took a course related to their interests.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying tenth grade students. Thus, the survey was designed to assess the extent to which Arizona tenth grade students have selected career majors, planned a course of study for high school and beyond, and received adult guidance related to careers. As part of the evaluation, the intent was to look at the extent to which career preparation and work experiences truly are system-wide and impact students. In contrast, the purpose was not to evaluate whether STW program participants are receiving school-based learning components.

Tenth-grade students in Arizona school to work (STW) regional partnerships were polled in 1997, 1998, and 1999, to determine whether systemic change was occurring across the state. Study results were mixed. Three activities increased significantly over the baseline year: class projects, computer use, and volunteerism. The use of career inventories declined over the same period. The role of adults in helping students explore career choices remained relatively stable. Further, the number of students who had some idea of their career interests had not changed significantly. Gender differences still existed and were largely unchanged. Fewer students reported taking courses related to their career interests. The relationship of participation in career-related activities to an ability to state a career interest continued to be strong. Students felt job shadowing, business mentors, and internships would be most helpful. However, fewer students participated in these activities. The participating students were better able to articulate their career interests and, in general, had more frequent and positive attitudes about participation in STW. Statewide programs reported positive student outcomes as a result of STW activities. Evidence of systemic change was beginning to be seen. Most significantly, class projects, computer use, and volunteer projects showed consistent gains over the three years.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying seventh grade students regarding career awareness and career exploration and counseling in order to help students who may be interested to identify, and select or reconsider, their interests, goals and career majors, including those options that may not be traditional for their gender, race, or ethnicity.

In spring 1998, 1,020 seventh-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 seventh-grade students in 1997. Data showed that student participation in activities increased. Top-ranked activities were the same in both years: classroom speakers, discussions with adults, class projects, field trips, and job shadowing. In both years, more than 60 percent said at least one activity helped them think about choosing a career; roughly 35 percent indicated having a definite idea of what they want to do in the future; and student participation in various activities was positively related to their ability to define a career interest. In both years, mentoring by other adults was up, whereas mentoring by school personnel had decreased. Students who talked to adults about their careers were significantly more likely to have identified a career interest. In both years, fewer boys were apt to report any adult talked to them about careers. The number of students who planned to take classes in high school that teach job skills showed a statistically significant decrease. Girls were more certain they would take classes. In both years, about one-third of students agreed some jobs are best for women, and some for men; boys agreed most often.

Arizona seventh-grade students were polled in 1997, 1998, and 1999, to determine the extent of their participation in career awareness and exploration activities, the impact that the activities have had, and how they were delivered. Survey results provided evidence of systemic change in the regional school-to-work (STW) partnerships. Further, data suggested that the way career awareness activities are delivered makes a difference in their effectiveness. The comparative survey conducted in 1999 supported the contention that STW students differed from their classmates and that STW made a difference for students. The regional analysis compared randomly selected classrooms over 3 years. Changes between 1997 and 1999 were measured in participation metrics and the role of adult mentors. The relative share of students who had at least some idea of their career interests was consistently high (86.8 percent). The mean number of STW activities per pupil increased significantly and the share of students participating in five types of activities rose. A key finding supported over the 3-year period was that students who participated in a variety of activities were better able to identify their career interests. The role of adult mentors intensified. The share of students who talked to adults about careers, and who discussed careers with a counselor, increased significantly between 1997-99.

Arizonans have been divided in their feelings about growth and what to do about it, especially during the past two decades. To complicate matters, the debate over the best responses to growth has been drawn along overly simplistic lines—the economy versus the environment. Arizonans who follow the myriad issues related to urban growth closely are becoming convinced that the discussion needs to be recast in a new light.

Scholar Leo Marx coined the phrase “the machine in the garden” in 1964 to describe the relationship between nature and technology. Considering much of the writing about Arizona’s growth, it seemed an apt title for this volume of Arizona Policy Choices. "The Machine in the Garden" presents growth policy choices for Arizona along a continuum: Yesterday’s Growth—the policies that have been used in the past; Today’s Growth—the “smarter” approaches from around the country; and Tomorrow’s Growth—cutting edge thinking about the economy and experiments in urbanism and governance.

Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison Institute for Public Policy. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started.