The state government general fund shortfall in the current fiscal year is projected to be between about $550 million and $1 billion. This shortfall will need to be eliminated through spending cuts and/or revenue enhancements. The Legislature has demonstrated a preference for spending cuts. However demand does not decline during a recession for most public-sector services, including university services. Any reduction in funding for universities will have a negative and direct effect. A reduction in state government spending for universities of around $200 million would cause direct and indirect job losses of approximately 4,000. A substantial decrease in state government funding for universities will have negative consequences beyond these short-term effects.

The determination of the number of businesses operating in Arizona is not a straightforward proposition due to data deficiencies and definitional issues. The best data — from the U.S. Census Bureau — are more than two years old. The Census Bureau data are divided into two series: businesses with employees and nonemployer businesses. Each series is based on administrative records. While neither series is affected by sampling error, both are subject to nonsampling error. Certain industries are excluded from each series.