This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

Between May and July of 1996, members of the council were asked to participate in a series of interviews. The primary purpose of the interviews was to elicit council members' views of and expectations for Arizona's STW initiative. A second reason was to clarify the mission of the council itself. This paper highlights salient points from the interviews. Quotes are used verbatim.

In February of 1998, the Pima County Board of Supervisors launched what has evolved into the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP) -- a comprehensive effort to protect the Sonoran Desert, guide growth and rationalize land development in the metropolitan Tucson region. Proponents of this planning process maintained that the project would reconcile conflicts between human activities and conservation, providing benefits for both wildlife and economic development. Critics, however, have increasingly alleged that implementing such an initiative will adversely affect land and housing markets, increase taxes and create problems of housing affordability. Over time a pressing need has consequently grown for objective information about the possible fiscal and economic impacts of the conservation programs being assembled by Pima County. This report addresses that need. It is a tool in the form of an impartial framework for assessment that government officials, environmentalists, business people and the general public can use for debate and decision-making.

With unemployment up, consumer spending down, and governments facing revenue shortfalls, Arizona must become more competitive than ever before. AZ Workforce: Latinos, Youth and the Future, produced as part of the ASU Office of Public Affairs’ César E. Chávez Leadership Lecture, examines the “unfinished business” of Arizona’s workforce. The report notes reasons why the workforce remains a critical issue: A skilled workforce is critical to expanding the state’s economy. Arizonans must have the skills employers need. Arizona ranks 17th on Milken Institute’s State Science and Technology Index overall, but 33rd among states on the Human Capital Index; Demographic shifts have put workforce issues front and center. Aging and minority growth in light of enduring disparities make Arizona’s current workforce a priority; and, Arizona’s employers will have to look harder at homegrown workers. Conservatively speaking, for everyK-12 student another Arizonan needs help with skills. For example, more than 430,000 Arizonans do not speak English well, while more than 600,000 Arizonans did not finish high school. AZ Workforce looks at big picture facts and figures about the state’s 3-million-strong workforce. By 2030, Arizona may have more than 10 million residents. A key part of the big picture is that the generation replacing older workers has less education than today’s mature workforce.

The School-to-Work (STW) Opportunities Act of 1994 is intended to "offer opportunities for all students to participate in a performance-based education and training program." Nevertheless, certain populations remain hard to reach. In particular, out-of-school youth--students aged 16 through 24 who have not completed high school and are not currently enrolled in school--pose a unique challenge for emerging STW systems. This document explores the manner in which Arizona’s 13 state-funded STW partnerships (for FY 1996-97) are serving out-of-school youth. In addition, new system elements and regional STW plans for service expansion for this population are detailed. Innovative programs within the partnerships are also highlighted.

Arizona seventh-grade students were polled in 1997, 1998, and 1999, to determine the extent of their participation in career awareness and exploration activities, the impact that the activities have had, and how they were delivered. Survey results provided evidence of systemic change in the regional school-to-work (STW) partnerships. Further, data suggested that the way career awareness activities are delivered makes a difference in their effectiveness. The comparative survey conducted in 1999 supported the contention that STW students differed from their classmates and that STW made a difference for students. The regional analysis compared randomly selected classrooms over 3 years. Changes between 1997 and 1999 were measured in participation metrics and the role of adult mentors. The relative share of students who had at least some idea of their career interests was consistently high (86.8 percent). The mean number of STW activities per pupil increased significantly and the share of students participating in five types of activities rose. A key finding supported over the 3-year period was that students who participated in a variety of activities were better able to identify their career interests. The role of adult mentors intensified. The share of students who talked to adults about careers, and who discussed careers with a counselor, increased significantly between 1997-99.

In spring 1998, 1,020 seventh-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 seventh-grade students in 1997. Data showed that student participation in activities increased. Top-ranked activities were the same in both years: classroom speakers, discussions with adults, class projects, field trips, and job shadowing. In both years, more than 60 percent said at least one activity helped them think about choosing a career; roughly 35 percent indicated having a definite idea of what they want to do in the future; and student participation in various activities was positively related to their ability to define a career interest. In both years, mentoring by other adults was up, whereas mentoring by school personnel had decreased. Students who talked to adults about their careers were significantly more likely to have identified a career interest. In both years, fewer boys were apt to report any adult talked to them about careers. The number of students who planned to take classes in high school that teach job skills showed a statistically significant decrease. Girls were more certain they would take classes. In both years, about one-third of students agreed some jobs are best for women, and some for men; boys agreed most often.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying seventh grade students regarding career awareness and career exploration and counseling in order to help students who may be interested to identify, and select or reconsider, their interests, goals and career majors, including those options that may not be traditional for their gender, race, or ethnicity.

A series of 51 individual “stakeholder” interviews and two focus groups conducted with members of the Pima County business community in fall, 2001, documented significantly divided opinion about the likely economic impacts of the county’s Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP). The results of the stakeholder inquiries were striking. Only one major finding reflected consensus, while several others revealed sharp differences of opinion in the business community about the potential economic impacts of the SDCP and associated initiatives.