This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

What do we mean by "shoes waiting to drop?" We mean the trends that are already well under way — but that we can't quite see yet. These trends could overwhelm us if we don't spot them now and aggressively use our knowledge to plot our course for the future. The five "shoes" highlighted in the report are: A Talent Shake Up; Latino Education Dilemma; A Fuzzy Economic Identity; Lost Stewardship; and The Revenue Sieve.

Since spring 1996, regional School To Work (STW) partnerships throughout the state have been involved in a variety of activities designed to help create a comprehensive statewide system of school-to-work opportunities for Arizona students. The School-to-Work Opportunities Act of 1994 suggests that one element of a statewide system is career counseling for all students. As part of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state’s STW initiative coordinated by Morrison Institute for Public Policy on behalf of the Arizona Department of Commerce, School To Work Division (ADC-STW), Arizona public school counselors and their roles and responsibilities are being studied. The hypothesis is that if career guidance is emphasized in the schools (in accordance with 1994 Act), then one might see a shift in counselors’ roles over time to reflect more time spent on counseling activities related to career guidance. Baseline measures of counselor’s time use were established in 1996. This briefing paper provides first year trend data on Arizona school counselors and their use of time.

This briefing paper provides 3-year trend data on Arizona school counselors' use of time. They hypothesis is that if career guidance were to be emphasized in the schools in accordance with the School-To-Work Act, a shift in counselors' roles could be expected to reflect more time spend on career guidance. An overview of the survey is provided including methodology and respondent characteristics. Data for each year includes counselors' allocation of time to counseling students, working with teachers and guidance curriculum, responding to crises, providing system support, and non-guidance activities. Although the pattern of time use has remained stable over three years, non-guidance and system support time have decreased in favor of guidance activities. Changes are small. Percentage of time spent in student counseling is further analyzed by issues. Counselor awareness of the School-To-Work initiative and their job satisfaction has increased. However, no significant changes in counselors' roles or duties were found in spite of considerable professional development efforts at state and local levels. These results are compared with the Comprehensive Competency-Based Guidance model, and sound practice in school counseling is discussed. Policy questions are raised.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative is the evaluation of public awareness and opinions of STW as a concept and a vehicle for education reform. In spring 1996, a statewide public poll of parents, businesses and educators was conducted to establish baseline measures of public attitudes toward STW prior to widespread implementation in the schools. In fall 1996, Arizona public school counselors were surveyed as an additional constituent group. This paper highlights findings from the state's baseline study of counselors' opinions toward STW -- especially as compared with the opinions of other constituent groups.

As part of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative, a survey was conducted to establish baseline measures of counselors' time use and attitudes toward STW prior to its widespread implementation in Arizona schools. This paper discusses counselors' roles and responsibilities--that is, how they currently spend their time. The study will be replicated annually, with the hypothesis that if STW has the impact intended, then one should see marked increases in the time spent counseling students on work/career issues.

With unemployment up, consumer spending down, and governments facing revenue shortfalls, Arizona must become more competitive than ever before. AZ Workforce: Latinos, Youth and the Future, produced as part of the ASU Office of Public Affairs’ César E. Chávez Leadership Lecture, examines the “unfinished business” of Arizona’s workforce. The report notes reasons why the workforce remains a critical issue: A skilled workforce is critical to expanding the state’s economy. Arizonans must have the skills employers need. Arizona ranks 17th on Milken Institute’s State Science and Technology Index overall, but 33rd among states on the Human Capital Index; Demographic shifts have put workforce issues front and center. Aging and minority growth in light of enduring disparities make Arizona’s current workforce a priority; and, Arizona’s employers will have to look harder at homegrown workers. Conservatively speaking, for everyK-12 student another Arizonan needs help with skills. For example, more than 430,000 Arizonans do not speak English well, while more than 600,000 Arizonans did not finish high school. AZ Workforce looks at big picture facts and figures about the state’s 3-million-strong workforce. By 2030, Arizona may have more than 10 million residents. A key part of the big picture is that the generation replacing older workers has less education than today’s mature workforce.