It is an oversimplification to describe the new economy as a technology revolution, something that is mostly driven by and affects business. Clearly, new technologies and business practices are central to the concept of a new economy. However, that’s the easy part to understand. The bigger challenge is to grasp—and then develop strategies to take advantage of—how public policies in the new economy can most positively affect people and places. This report is meant to help Arizonans do just that.

This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

What do we mean by "shoes waiting to drop?" We mean the trends that are already well under way — but that we can't quite see yet. These trends could overwhelm us if we don't spot them now and aggressively use our knowledge to plot our course for the future. The five "shoes" highlighted in the report are: A Talent Shake Up; Latino Education Dilemma; A Fuzzy Economic Identity; Lost Stewardship; and The Revenue Sieve.

The state envisions actively promoting GSPED’s (Governor’s Strategic Partnership for Economic Development) vision of economic development, and linking workforce development efforts with GSPED. This means fundamentally changing the way the state does business. And, similar to most "new" initiatives, there are those who embrace the challenges implied and those who prefer the status quo. Prior to forging ahead with a new agenda to link economic and workforce development using GSPED as an organizing framework, the OWDP commissioned a statewide opinion poll to assess public attitudes toward these potentially controversial ideas. This briefing paper summarizes the results of the polling.

Fierce competition for workers is one of the top issues today in Arizona. Many people may be surprised to hear that anything related to the state’s economic situation is on a list of pressing issues. Arizona’s economy is and remains robust, the state is finding it difficult to supply workers in demand by industry. The result is a new but deep threat to our economic future. Businesses’ inability to find and retain the workers they need, where they will need them, may in fact be the spear that unexpectedly pierces the state’s prosperity.

With unemployment up, consumer spending down, and governments facing revenue shortfalls, Arizona must become more competitive than ever before. AZ Workforce: Latinos, Youth and the Future, produced as part of the ASU Office of Public Affairs’ César E. Chávez Leadership Lecture, examines the “unfinished business” of Arizona’s workforce. The report notes reasons why the workforce remains a critical issue: A skilled workforce is critical to expanding the state’s economy. Arizonans must have the skills employers need. Arizona ranks 17th on Milken Institute’s State Science and Technology Index overall, but 33rd among states on the Human Capital Index; Demographic shifts have put workforce issues front and center. Aging and minority growth in light of enduring disparities make Arizona’s current workforce a priority; and, Arizona’s employers will have to look harder at homegrown workers. Conservatively speaking, for everyK-12 student another Arizonan needs help with skills. For example, more than 430,000 Arizonans do not speak English well, while more than 600,000 Arizonans did not finish high school. AZ Workforce looks at big picture facts and figures about the state’s 3-million-strong workforce. By 2030, Arizona may have more than 10 million residents. A key part of the big picture is that the generation replacing older workers has less education than today’s mature workforce.

In the spring of 1998, the Office of Workforce Development Policy (OWDP) of the Arizona Department of Commerce commissioned a statewide opinion poll to assess public attitudes toward the state’s plan for economic development as implemented through GSPED — the Governor’s Strategic Partnership for Economic Development. The poll was designed to assess both the public’s understanding of GSPED and their reactions to using the concept of industry clusters as a tool for organizing both economic and workforce development efforts.