The state government general fund shortfall in the next fiscal year is projected to be $2.4 billion. A projected shortfall of $1.6 billion will need to be closed through spending reductions and/or revenue enhancements. The Legislature has focused on reductions in funding to state agencies. However demand does not decline for most public-sector services during a recession. Spending reductions by governments during recessions also worsen economic conditions. State spending cuts would worsen and lengthen the economic recession. The negative economic effects from a personal tax increase would be less than those of a governmental spending decrease. The demand for university services also does not drop during recessions. Any reduction in funding for universities will have a negative and direct effect. A substantial decrease in state government funding for universities will have negative consequences beyond these short-term effects. Any action--such as budget cuts--that undermines the success of the state's universities also impairs the state's economy.

In a paper released by the Goldwater Institute on December 18, 2008, "A Fresh Start for Arizona: Proposals for Closing a Billion-Dollar Budget Gap," Byron Schlomach puts forth recommendations for closing the deficit in the state government general fund. The following notes are an attempt to illustrate the consequences of the spending reductions recommended by Dr. Schlomach, along with some considerations about the philosophy apparently embodied in the recommendations.