Research into the sensitivity and vulnerability of urban water systems in Arizona reveals that managers are more concerned about factors such as population growth projections, economic trends, and revenue flows. Reliance on groundwater resources in many cases obscures recognition of any direct impact of precipitation on water supply. Given the low level of perceived climate risk among many providers interviewed for this study, it would seem unlikely that climate information would be needed. However, pockets of sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic impacts do exist in the four study areas covered in this study.

The study had three main goals: (1) to assess the vulnerability of groundwater-dependent agriculture to climate variability, (2) to identify historical and current processes of adaptation to the vagaries of climate in the region— these refer to both system wide adaptations and individual farmer’s adaptations, and, (3) to assess the use of and needs for seasonal climate forecast information in agricultural decision making. The report is targeted at institutional stakeholders (i.e., agricultural extension personnel), physical scientists (particularly climatologists), and policymakers (at the level of NOAA and other federal agencies). Specific recommendations are made to these groups in order to improve the delivery of seasonal forecasts, set research priorities, and inform public policy.

The research presented here documents institutional and organizational factors affecting fire management on tribal lands. Two case studies of fires occurring on tribal lands in Arizona provide insights into how these factors converged to influence the course of events. This study considers historic as well as current conditions and events because these affect whether or not people are receptive to information, to planning, and to working together. Though it focuses on decision making within tribes and agencies responsible for tribal lands, its findings are relevant for other locations as well.

As a major component of the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, this study is part of a larger effort to assess the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate variability and change in the southwestern U.S. As importantly, this assessment seeks to fulfill the project’s larger mission of working directly with communities to improve their ability to respond adequately and appropriately to climatic events and climate change. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the utility of a rapid ethnographic approach for (1) conducting a community-level assessment of climate related vulnerability and (2) extending the findings to other assessments.

Tribes have a direct government-to-government relationship with the U.S. government wherein no decisions about their lands and people are made without their consent. In Arizona, for example, American Indian reservations occupy nearly 30 percent of the land. Native Americans have a legal and moral claim to significant quantities of water as well. Because of their special legal standing in the United States, tribes are not just another group of stakeholders to be considered in the research and policy process. The purpose of this paper is to provide a legal and political background for interactions between the United States and tribal governments and provide models for those interactions, with special attention to research and outreach.

Conventional wisdom often views the urban water sector as being among the more sensitive sectors in the arid U.S. Southwest. To test this assumption, the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest analyzed the water budgets of five Arizona cities to determine how severe the impacts would be from the deepest one-, five-, and ten-year droughts on record. Case study sites for the analysis included the Phoenix Active Management Area, Tucson Active Management Area, Santa Cruz Active Management Area, and the Benson and Sierra Vista subwatersheds of the San Pedro River.