The Phoenix metropolitan area is new by national standards, having developed primarily since World War II and particularly since 1970. However, settlement patterns were established in the 1800s, in part due to topographic features such as water courses and mountains. The war effort during World War II stimulated the growth of the Valley. After the war, a combination of events led to much faster growth. These included the desire of ex-servicemen stationed in the area during the war to return; improvements in air conditioning; charter government in Phoenix, which allowed a small pro-growth business group to gain power; and
aerospace and electronics firms siting facilities, in part because of the federal government’s designation of Fort Huachuca as the principal proving ground for electronic defense equipment. The modern period began around 1970, when a maturing metro area coincided with the baby-boom generation reaching adulthood. The result was even more rapid growth that has continued to the current time. Rapid growth of the Phoenix metro area is expected to continue for at least the next 50 years. Land and water availability should not restrict growth until after the current population of nearly three million exceeds seven million in 2050.

Arizona is one of the nation’s most urban states, and now it includes one of 20 “megapolitan” areas in the U.S. People have predicted for 50 years that Phoenix and Tucson would grow together into a giant desert conglomerate. That possibility has been seen as exciting, intriguing, and distressing. While a solid city along Interstate 10 is unlikely given the diverse land ownership in central and southern Arizona, the two metro economies are already merging.

Megapolitan: Arizona’s Sun Corridor, one of the first reports on a single megapolitan area, recognizes a more sophisticated technique for analyzing urban growth—that shared economic and quality of life interests are more important than physically growing together.

Scholars at Virginia Tech defined the megapolitans based on economic and growth patterns.
The Sun Corridor, which cuts across six counties from the border with Mexico to the center of Yavapai County, is the home of eight out of 10 Arizonans. In the next several decades, two out of three Americans will live in a megapolitan accounting for 60% of the population on only 10% of U.S. land.

Megapolitan offers a bold new picture of Arizona’s geography and its future opportunities and “megaton” challenges. This report presents a scenario for 2035 based on current trends. It analyzes the Sun Corridor and provides insights into the region’s global potential, water, governance, sustainability, and “trillion dollar questions.” It discusses the “tragedy of the sunshine” and asks the indispensable question: In 2035, do you want to live in the Sun Corridor?

Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison Institute for Public Policy. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started.