The demand for new workers in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) occupations in Arizona is a function of net job growth in these occupations in the state and the number of workers leaving STEM jobs in Arizona. Employees may leave their position for various reasons, including to retire, to move out of the state, or to change their profession. The supply of new workers in STEM occupations in Arizona is a function of the number of new college graduates in related majors, the number of workers moving to the state who are qualified to fill STEM jobs, and the number of Arizonans who are qualified to fill STEM jobs moving from a non-STEM to STEM occupation.

A landmark assessment of infrastructure needs in Arizona was produced by the L. William Seidman Research Institute in May 2008 for the Arizona Investment Council (AIC): "Infrastructure Needs and Funding Alternatives for Arizona: 2008-2032", that addressed infrastructure needs in four categories: energy, telecommunications, transportation, and water and wastewater. The information from the AIC report is a major input to the report that follows. Other types of infrastructure — most notably education, health care, and public safety — also are analyzed here to provide a more complete picture of infrastructure needs in Arizona. The goals of this report are to place Arizona’s infrastructure needs into national and historical contexts, to identify the changing conditions in infrastructure provision that make building Arizona’s infrastructure in the future a more problematic proposition than in the past, and to provide projections of the possible costs of providing infrastructure in Arizona over the next quarter century.

For decades, Arizona was one of the national leaders in aggregate economic growth, as measured by the percent change in measures such as gross product and employment. However, its growth rate always has been highly cyclical. During expansionary periods, Arizona always has been among the top states on the rate of growth. During recessions, the Arizona economy generally slumped at a rate similar to the national average, but would experience a rapid recovery. This pattern continued through the economic expansion of the mid-2000s.

Per capita earnings in Arizona has been lower than the national average for decades. The 2011 differential of 19 percent is the largest on record; the typical differential has been between 10 and 15 percent. Thus, for residents who have spent some or all of their working life in the state, the state’s historically low per capita earnings help to explain the state’s below-average per capita property income.

The transaction privilege tax (TPT), often referred to as the sales tax, is a major source of revenue for state and local governments in Arizona. The TPT is applied to numerous categories, such as contracting and utilities. The analysis in this paper is limited to the retail category, which accounts for half of the TPT collected by state government, and the restaurant and bar category, which contributes one-tenth of the TPT revenue.

This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

Despite all of the spending reductions, fund transfers, and other techniques used to balance the budget in the preceding few years, Arizona’s general fund faces a massive deficit. This issue of Policy Points poses an important question: Are you content with the historically low expenditures being made from the general fund and satisfied that the current low level of public services will be permanent?