The purpose of the stabilization fund is to reduce the fluctuations in general fund revenue caused by the economic cycle. These fluctuations result in large budget surpluses in some years and large deficits in other years. Without considering the structural deficit, the budget stabilization fund almost certainly will not have the funding necessary to offset the cyclical reduction in revenue that will occur during the next recession.

This is a summary of several reports related to government finance in Arizona that have been produced by the Office of the University Economist since December 2008. Some new information has been added in an attempt to provide a complete picture. The format of this report is a brief summary by issue, sometimes accompanied by a table or chart. References are provided to the report and the page number where additional detail can be found.

A landmark assessment of infrastructure needs in Arizona was produced by the L. William Seidman Research Institute in May 2008 for the Arizona Investment Council (AIC): "Infrastructure Needs and Funding Alternatives for Arizona: 2008-2032", that addressed infrastructure needs in four categories: energy, telecommunications, transportation, and water and wastewater. The information from the AIC report is a major input to the report that follows. Other types of infrastructure — most notably education, health care, and public safety — also are analyzed here to provide a more complete picture of infrastructure needs in Arizona. The goals of this report are to place Arizona’s infrastructure needs into national and historical contexts, to identify the changing conditions in infrastructure provision that make building Arizona’s infrastructure in the future a more problematic proposition than in the past, and to provide projections of the possible costs of providing infrastructure in Arizona over the next quarter century.

The educational attainment of Arizona’s workforce is less than the national average and has deteriorated over time relative to the U.S. average. Job quality and average earnings in Arizona also are below the national average. These three factors — job quality, earnings, and educational attainment — are interrelated. On average, the higher the educational attainment of a worker, the higher are his or her earnings. The largest increase by far occurs with the completion of a university degree. In Arizona, the average earnings of those with a college degree are approximately $28,140 (73 percent) higher than those with only some college. Thus, working individuals financially benefit from enhancing their educational attainment.

The demand for new workers in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) occupations in Arizona is a function of net job growth in these occupations in the state and the number of workers leaving STEM jobs in Arizona. Employees may leave their position for various reasons, including to retire, to move out of the state, or to change their profession. The supply of new workers in STEM occupations in Arizona is a function of the number of new college graduates in related majors, the number of workers moving to the state who are qualified to fill STEM jobs, and the number of Arizonans who are qualified to fill STEM jobs moving from a non-STEM to STEM occupation.

The attraction of a federal research laboratory to Arizona as a strategic economic development initiative of the Arizona Economic Resource Organization can be justified based on the literature cited below, the relationship of federally funded research and development centers to broader measures of research and development and prosperity, and the implementation of this strategy elsewhere. A primary objective of attracting a federal research facility is to help create a climate that is conducive to private-sector economic development, especially related to research and development. On a purely cost-benefit basis, the pursuit of a federal lab has strong appeal since the benefits largely will accrue within Arizona while a considerable portion of the costs conceivably will be borne by the federal government.

The analysis of the value of higher education contained in this report represents an important dimension of the P3 research agenda since measuring the value of educated workers can provide empirical context for understanding the importance of an educated and skilled workforce in a modern economy. In this report, the increases in individual earnings realized from enhanced educational attainment are measured and the benefits to the economy and society in general that are provided by a highly educated workforce are examined.