This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

Maricopa County has experienced remarkable population growth for decades, and will continue to do so. But while expanding metro areas tend to pay close attention to physical infrastructure—diligently budgeting for roads, sewers, schools and the like—there is often a relative lack of attention to meeting the future demands for human services. Relying on the expertise from throughout the College of Public Programs, this report analyzes 12 critically important topics, including children and families, poverty, substance abuse, and Latinos.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying seventh grade students regarding career awareness and career exploration and counseling in order to help students who may be interested to identify, and select or reconsider, their interests, goals and career majors, including those options that may not be traditional for their gender, race, or ethnicity.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying tenth grade students. Thus, the survey was designed to assess the extent to which Arizona tenth grade students have selected career majors, planned a course of study for high school and beyond, and received adult guidance related to careers. As part of the evaluation, the intent was to look at the extent to which career preparation and work experiences truly are system-wide and impact students. In contrast, the purpose was not to evaluate whether STW program participants are receiving school-based learning components.

In spring 1997, Arizona repeated a spring 1996 statewide public poll that established baseline measures of public attitudes toward school-to-work (STW). Samples were drawn from three constituent groups: parents, businesses, and educators. Over 2,700 Arizonans participated each year. Overall awareness of STW was up significantly among every group. The belief that local schools were involved increased, but many parents, businesses, and teachers still said their schools were not involved or they were unsure.

In both studies, a majority of educators rated the overall quality of education positively, whereas parents and businesses were more moderate in their ratings. Well over 90 percent of all groups said some degree of change was needed. Almost 90 percent of each group advocated that schools teach more than just basic skills. Three-quarters or more of all groups supported changing teachers' duties to emphasize instruction in teamwork, work habits, and work-related concerns; ensuring more collaboration in program and curriculum design; providing more comprehensive learning programs; providing "Career Majors"; and creating student employment opportunities.

Two beliefs pervaded the emerging STW system: the state must do a better job of identifying and serving special populations and not everyone is optimistic STW will succeed. Over half of all groups would be willing to pay additional taxes to support STW programs and all groups would vote for candidates supportive of STW.