This is a summary of several reports related to government finance in Arizona that have been produced by the Office of the University Economist since December 2008. Some new information has been added in an attempt to provide a complete picture. The format of this report is a brief summary by issue, sometimes accompanied by a table or chart. References are provided to the report and the page number where additional detail can be found.

Volume I: Facts
Analyses of Arizona state government finance, using data of the Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee, and of the combined finances of all state and local governments within Arizona, using data of the U.S. Census Bureau. A historical perspective is provided for both datasets. For combined state and local government finance, comparisons are made to other states and to the national average. In addition, other measures of the tax burden by state are examined.

Volume II: Concepts and Issues
Addresses the conceptual and empirical relationships between taxes, government revenue, and economic growth. Also discusses current issues specific to Arizona state government finance. This is a revised version of the report "Tax Reductions, the Economy, and the Deficit in the Arizona State Government General Fund," incorporating new and updated material.

Volume III: Options for Managing the Arizona State General Fund
Presents options and offers recommendations for managing the Arizona state government general fund. The near-term budget deficit is addressed as well as ways to prevent budget deficits from recurring every time economic growth slows.

The purpose of the stabilization fund is to reduce the fluctuations in general fund revenue caused by the economic cycle. These fluctuations result in large budget surpluses in some years and large deficits in other years. Without considering the structural deficit, the budget stabilization fund almost certainly will not have the funding necessary to offset the cyclical reduction in revenue that will occur during the next recession.

For those interested in one of the most extreme state tax and expenditure limitations, TABOR – Colorado’s initiative that limits the funding of most expenditures to annual revenue growth restrained by the sum of annual population growth and inflation rates – would seem to be exactly the right choice. To some, the initiative simply limits government to spend within its means. However, the analysis in this paper reveals that, true to the language in the 1992 Colorado initiative, TABOR limits government growth, and over time the public sector, as a share of the overall economy, declines sharply – crowding out opportunities for investments in strategic initiatives or opportunities for tax reform that may be popular with large voter constituencies or the business community. Advocates point out that provisions in TABOR do allow for voter overrides, but these are costly in both time and money, and until the overrides take place, government is
hamstrung. A simpler, more efficient alternative would be to elect fiscally conservative legislators and hold them accountable for prudent fiscal decisions that strike the right balance between a tax base conductive to economic growth and strategic investments that provide public sector infrastructure, nurturing the business climate and promoting the health and well-being of the citizenry. The paper first outlines the TABOR amendment in Colorado and examines its fiscal consequences for that state. It then examines the potential impact of a TABOR in Arizona.

The condition of Arizona’s infrastructure has a direct impact on economic productivity and quality of life. As economic competition expands domestically and globally, and as the knowledge economy evolves, the importance of a strong infrastructure increases. Education, in particular, is of growing importance. Arizona’s infrastructure challenges will require commitment and creativity to meet the needs and potential of 10 million people and to ensure a positive future for the state.

The study was conducted in response to concerns from state leaders about the perceived shortage of construction workers and the impact that this shortage may be having on the industry’s ability to meet the growing residential and commercial demand for construction. The purpose of this study is to document the state of the industry, its workforce, and its capacity to prepare skilled workers to meet a growing demand.

The information in this report is based on telephone interviews with 700 registered voters. One random sample of 500 registered voters was selected from all registered voters living in Arizona. This sample was proportionately stratified so that voters in each of Arizona’s 15 counties were included in the sample. An additional sample of 100 interviews with registered voters living in Pima County was also interviewed. A third random sample of 100 registered voters living in the more rural counties also was interviewed. The purpose of selecting the two smaller samples was to create sub-samples of Pima County and rural voters that could be compared with the opinions of voters in Maricopa County.

The purpose of this analysis is to identify supplier gaps in Arizona based on secondary data as well as a statewide buyer survey. The buyer survey includes results from a web-based questionnaire, as well as personal interviews. The analysis is structured around twelve industries of opportunity identified in “Arizona’s Economic Future,” prepared by Economy.com in August 2002.

One of the ways that buyer supplier relationships in Arizona could be strengthened is through a statewide program that would provide resources to allow buyers and local suppliers to identify each other more easily to and provide better feedback to suppliers enabling them to compete more effectively with nonlocal vendors. This study includes reviews of three such programs: AZBusinessLinc used in Tucson; Connectory which is a similar program used in California; and FOCUS which is used for government procurement in California.