The travel and tourism industry matters to Arizona’s economic health and vitality.  As one of Arizona’s pillar industries, tourism has been integral to the economic growth and development of the Grand Canyon State shaping it into the amazing destination that it is today. This industry has generated thousands of jobs, billions of dollars in earnings and billions of dollars in tax revenue, all of which contribute to the quality of life for each and every Arizonan.

Arizona’s travel and tourism industry is operating in a new landscape driven by sustained economic challenges, evolving demographics, emerging technology and shifts in consumer travel patterns. Thus the creation and importance of its 5-Year Strategic Plan is to lay the foundation upon which our agency will take the lead and assist in the continued growth and prosperity of our industry over the next five years, further contributing to the overall economic development of the state.

Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

This report follows The Coming of Age report produced in 2002 by some of the principals involved in this project, and published by St. Luke’s Health Initiatives. That research showed that Arizona had much to do to get ready for the baby boomer age wave. The results of Unlocking Resilience from new survey data, interviews, and secondary research indicates Arizona still has much to do to prepare for aging and must make concrete policy decisions about aging.