An update to the Flagstaff Regional Plan 2030 (FRP30), to bring its Road Network Illustration (Map 25) into compliance with Arizona Revised Statute requirements and to resolve inconsistencies between Map 25 and parts of the Flagstaff City Code. This update does not alter the intent of FRP30; it is only concerned with correcting errors, removing legal vulnerability, and improving the readability of FRP30.

Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

This report follows The Coming of Age report produced in 2002 by some of the principals involved in this project, and published by St. Luke’s Health Initiatives. That research showed that Arizona had much to do to get ready for the baby boomer age wave. The results of Unlocking Resilience from new survey data, interviews, and secondary research indicates Arizona still has much to do to prepare for aging and must make concrete policy decisions about aging.

In spring 1998, 1,057 10th-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 10th-grade students in 1997. Data indicated that, in both years, nearly all students had at least an idea of their career area of interest; gender differences were observed in students' selections of career interests. Student participation in activities increased. Statistically significant differences in participation by sex were evident: more girls reported learning about careers in class and participating in volunteer activities; and more boys participated in internships with pay, worked for pay in a job unrelated to their careers, and had business mentors. The share of students who had selected a career interest increased as participation rose. All 14 activities were at least "somewhat" helpful to students in making career selections. In both years, students ranked family, teachers, and friends most highly as influencing career interests. One-fourth of students in 1998 compared to one-third of students in 1997 indicated they never received career guidance at school. Less than one-half of students were aware of courses related to career interests; even fewer actually took a course related to their interests.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying tenth grade students. Thus, the survey was designed to assess the extent to which Arizona tenth grade students have selected career majors, planned a course of study for high school and beyond, and received adult guidance related to careers. As part of the evaluation, the intent was to look at the extent to which career preparation and work experiences truly are system-wide and impact students. In contrast, the purpose was not to evaluate whether STW program participants are receiving school-based learning components.

Tenth-grade students in Arizona school to work (STW) regional partnerships were polled in 1997, 1998, and 1999, to determine whether systemic change was occurring across the state. Study results were mixed. Three activities increased significantly over the baseline year: class projects, computer use, and volunteerism. The use of career inventories declined over the same period. The role of adults in helping students explore career choices remained relatively stable. Further, the number of students who had some idea of their career interests had not changed significantly. Gender differences still existed and were largely unchanged. Fewer students reported taking courses related to their career interests. The relationship of participation in career-related activities to an ability to state a career interest continued to be strong. Students felt job shadowing, business mentors, and internships would be most helpful. However, fewer students participated in these activities. The participating students were better able to articulate their career interests and, in general, had more frequent and positive attitudes about participation in STW. Statewide programs reported positive student outcomes as a result of STW activities. Evidence of systemic change was beginning to be seen. Most significantly, class projects, computer use, and volunteer projects showed consistent gains over the three years.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative involves surveying seventh grade students regarding career awareness and career exploration and counseling in order to help students who may be interested to identify, and select or reconsider, their interests, goals and career majors, including those options that may not be traditional for their gender, race, or ethnicity.

In spring 1998, 1,020 seventh-grade students were surveyed as one component of a statewide evaluation of Arizona's school-to-work system designed by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. This second survey measured attitudes toward and participation in career activities. Results were compared to baseline data collected from over 2,000 seventh-grade students in 1997. Data showed that student participation in activities increased. Top-ranked activities were the same in both years: classroom speakers, discussions with adults, class projects, field trips, and job shadowing. In both years, more than 60 percent said at least one activity helped them think about choosing a career; roughly 35 percent indicated having a definite idea of what they want to do in the future; and student participation in various activities was positively related to their ability to define a career interest. In both years, mentoring by other adults was up, whereas mentoring by school personnel had decreased. Students who talked to adults about their careers were significantly more likely to have identified a career interest. In both years, fewer boys were apt to report any adult talked to them about careers. The number of students who planned to take classes in high school that teach job skills showed a statistically significant decrease. Girls were more certain they would take classes. In both years, about one-third of students agreed some jobs are best for women, and some for men; boys agreed most often.