Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

A series of 51 individual “stakeholder” interviews and two focus groups conducted with members of the Pima County business community in fall, 2001, documented significantly divided opinion about the likely economic impacts of the county’s Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP). The results of the stakeholder inquiries were striking. Only one major finding reflected consensus, while several others revealed sharp differences of opinion in the business community about the potential economic impacts of the SDCP and associated initiatives.

What do we mean by "shoes waiting to drop?" We mean the trends that are already well under way — but that we can't quite see yet. These trends could overwhelm us if we don't spot them now and aggressively use our knowledge to plot our course for the future. The five "shoes" highlighted in the report are: A Talent Shake Up; Latino Education Dilemma; A Fuzzy Economic Identity; Lost Stewardship; and The Revenue Sieve.

In February of 1998, the Pima County Board of Supervisors launched what has evolved into the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP) -- a comprehensive effort to protect the Sonoran Desert, guide growth and rationalize land development in the metropolitan Tucson region. Proponents of this planning process maintained that the project would reconcile conflicts between human activities and conservation, providing benefits for both wildlife and economic development. Critics, however, have increasingly alleged that implementing such an initiative will adversely affect land and housing markets, increase taxes and create problems of housing affordability. Over time a pressing need has consequently grown for objective information about the possible fiscal and economic impacts of the conservation programs being assembled by Pima County. This report addresses that need. It is a tool in the form of an impartial framework for assessment that government officials, environmentalists, business people and the general public can use for debate and decision-making.

The Arizona Statewide Transportation Improvement Program identifies statewide priorities for transportation projects. It is a compilation of projects utilizing various federal funding programs and includes highway projects on the cities, counties, and state highway systems, as well as projects in the National Parks, US Forest Service, and Indian Reservation Roads. This is a four-year project list compiled in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, Federal Transit Administration, Council of Governments, and the Metropolitan Planning Organizations. Projects are selected for inclusion in the STIP based on adopted procedures and criteria.

A statistical review of the motor vehicle crashes in the State of Arizona for each calendar year. The results are compiled from Arizona Traffic Accident Reports submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation by state, county, city, tribal, and other law enforcement agencies. Motor Vehicle Crash Facts is an annual report published by the Traffic Engineering Group of the Arizona Department of Transportation. In order to provide the most current information, preliminary data is utilized when necessary. For this reason, previous or future reports may differ slightly and users are encouraged to refer to the latest issue of Motor Vehicle Crash Facts.

The Transit Programs and Grants group within the Multi-Modal Planning Division of the Arizona Department of Transportation is a ten member team that is responsible for administering Federal Transit Administration grants and programs that enhance mobility options in the non-urban areas of the State of Arizona. Transit has five main areas of focus: Rural Transit, Coordinated Mobility, Planning, Safety and Grant Administration.

This Plan defines visionary, yet pragmatic, investment choices Arizona will make over the next 25 years to maintain and improve its multimodal transportation system. The Plan is not rigid or fixed. It is part of a continuous process of planning, implementation, operation, and preservation and will evolve over time to reflect and be responsive to future changes in needs, resources, and priorities. This Plan is strategic in nature, examining investment types for ADOT’s capital program; it does not examine nor recommend any specific projects.