Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

This report follows The Coming of Age report produced in 2002 by some of the principals involved in this project, and published by St. Luke’s Health Initiatives. That research showed that Arizona had much to do to get ready for the baby boomer age wave. The results of Unlocking Resilience from new survey data, interviews, and secondary research indicates Arizona still has much to do to prepare for aging and must make concrete policy decisions about aging.

Since 1996, Arizona has been building a comprehensive statewide system of school-to-work opportunities for students from kindergarten through college, supported by a School-to-Work (STW) implementation grant from the U.S. Departments of Labor and Education. After 3 years, a public opinion poll of a 2,200-person random sample drawn from parents, businesses, and educators sought information on these five topics: (1) public awareness of the STW initiative, (2) perceived need for school change; (3) reactions to specific changes embodied by STW; (4) specific attitudes toward STW; and (5) support for the STW initiative.

The polling data showed that awareness of STW among educators is up; increasing percentages of parents and educators report being involved in a regional partnership; and there are high levels of support for changes in the public school system, types of learning programs needed, STW implementation, and the changes in school operations that STW signifies. Educators are increasingly viewing STW as a broad-based career exploration and preparation initiative designed to meet the needs of all students.

Support for STW is also growing along the lines of public policy, tax-paying readiness, and candidate support. On the other hand, fewer businesses than in the past report being aware of STW or involved in local school efforts, although a majority of businesses polled continue to express high levels of support for STW,. More businesses view STW as a program that is limited in scope, serves only select students, and is likely to fail because of entrenched bureaucracy, and growing numbers of parents and teachers are beginning to share these views. The study concluded that policy-level action is needed to keep STW alive in Arizona.

The state envisions actively promoting GSPED’s (Governor’s Strategic Partnership for Economic Development) vision of economic development, and linking workforce development efforts with GSPED. This means fundamentally changing the way the state does business. And, similar to most "new" initiatives, there are those who embrace the challenges implied and those who prefer the status quo. Prior to forging ahead with a new agenda to link economic and workforce development using GSPED as an organizing framework, the OWDP commissioned a statewide opinion poll to assess public attitudes toward these potentially controversial ideas. This briefing paper summarizes the results of the polling.

In spring 1996, a statewide public poll was conducted to establish baseline measures of public attitudes toward school to work prior to its widespread implementation in Arizona schools. Findings indicated that although 83 percent of administrators had heard something about STW, more than half of the teachers and 7 of 10 parents and businesses had heard nothing. All constituent groups were uniformly high in terms of their support for all five proposed changes that could result from STW.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative is the evaluation of public awareness and opinions of STW as a concept and a vehicle for education reform. In spring 1996, a statewide public poll of parents, businesses and educators was conducted to establish baseline measures of public attitudes toward STW prior to widespread implementation in the schools. In fall 1996, Arizona public school counselors were surveyed as an additional constituent group. This paper highlights findings from the state's baseline study of counselors' opinions toward STW -- especially as compared with the opinions of other constituent groups.

As part of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative, a survey was conducted to establish baseline measures of counselors' time use and attitudes toward STW prior to its widespread implementation in Arizona schools. This paper discusses counselors' roles and responsibilities--that is, how they currently spend their time. The study will be replicated annually, with the hypothesis that if STW has the impact intended, then one should see marked increases in the time spent counseling students on work/career issues.

The fourth, and final, annual statewide public opinion polling is part of a multifaceted evaluation of Arizona's school to work (STW) initiative. Baseline data were established in spring 1996; comparative data have been collected annually since then. The polling assesses public attitudes toward STW, and determines their level of support or opposition to the initiative. Each year, three constituent groups were polled: parents, businesses, and educators. Sample sizes in 1999 yielded results comparable with those in 1996, 1997, and 1998 results. Findings indicate the following: public awareness of STW has grown significantly during the past 4 years; awareness of involvement in a regional partnership has grown; most Arizonans are satisfied with the overall quality of public schools, but are least satisfied with those aspects of education that relate more closely to STW, and are in favor of changes in public schools that support STW outcomes; and many Arizonans are skeptical that STW "can work." Clear majorities of Arizonans support STW on every indicator of support measured, including the following: willingness to pay taxes to support STW; willingness to vote for pro-STW elected officials; identification of STW participation as "very important" in the lives of students; indication that one would change schools to allow a child to participate in STW; and support to include STW in the state's budget.