What do we mean by "shoes waiting to drop?" We mean the trends that are already well under way — but that we can't quite see yet. These trends could overwhelm us if we don't spot them now and aggressively use our knowledge to plot our course for the future. The five "shoes" highlighted in the report are: A Talent Shake Up; Latino Education Dilemma; A Fuzzy Economic Identity; Lost Stewardship; and The Revenue Sieve.

Maricopa County has experienced remarkable population growth for decades, and will continue to do so. But while expanding metro areas tend to pay close attention to physical infrastructure—diligently budgeting for roads, sewers, schools and the like—there is often a relative lack of attention to meeting the future demands for human services. Relying on the expertise from throughout the College of Public Programs, this report analyzes 12 critically important topics, including children and families, poverty, substance abuse, and Latinos.

This publication offers comparative data and analysis on 10 public policy issues. With its scope and detail, "How Arizona Compares" will be of interest to many throughout Arizona and strives to encourage leaders and residents to discuss and move ahead on the state's most pressing public policy issues. The intent is for this publication to be studied and used for dialogue and action. The following sections are included: (1) Polishing the 48th Star; (2) Inside "How Arizona Compares"; (3) Arizona's Land and People; (4) Crime and Punishment; (5) Health and Health Care; (6) Education; (7) Business Futures; (8) Families and Incomes; (9) Signal Measures on Hot Topics; (10) Government; (11) Arts and Culture; (12) Housing; (13) Transportation; and (14) Environment. A list of selected sources is appended.

This report presents the second comprehensive look at the conditions of children and families in Arizona. Building upon information presented in the 1992 Factbook, this document presents and analyzes 48 indicators of child well-being. Following the executive summary and tables, chapter 1 provides an overview of the data for the state as a whole, including a summary of key findings and tables depicting raw numbers, rates adjusted for population growth, and rate changes over time. Racial and ethnic breakdowns are presented when such data are available.

Chapters 2-16 offer individual county profiles, following the general format established in the state chapter. These chapters offer insights into regional variations and identify varying conditions for children across the state. The report charts data within the state and county chapters for each of the following six categories: (1) poverty; (2) child health and safety; (3) child abuse, neglect, and out-of-home care; (4) early care and education; (5) children in school; and (6) teens at-risk. Overall, findings reveal significant improvements for a few indicators since 1990, most notably within birth-related items, such as an increase in the percent of women receiving timely prenatal care and a decrease in low birth-weight births. Findings also suggest there has been a worsening for many indicators, including poverty, firearm-related deaths and hospitalizations, alleged child abuse incidents, and births to teens.

Fierce competition for workers is one of the top issues today in Arizona. Many people may be surprised to hear that anything related to the state’s economic situation is on a list of pressing issues. Arizona’s economy is and remains robust, the state is finding it difficult to supply workers in demand by industry. The result is a new but deep threat to our economic future. Businesses’ inability to find and retain the workers they need, where they will need them, may in fact be the spear that unexpectedly pierces the state’s prosperity.

The purpose of this brief report is to provide information about Arizona’s system of workforce development, the Workforce Investment Act of 1998 (WIA), how the Act has been implemented in the greater Phoenix area and the program’s relevance to business. It is an update of a previous brief on the subject from February 2000. Prepared by Morrison Institute for Public Policy at the request of Greater Phoenix Leadership, the information contained in this report is intended for a business audience.

With unemployment up, consumer spending down, and governments facing revenue shortfalls, Arizona must become more competitive than ever before. AZ Workforce: Latinos, Youth and the Future, produced as part of the ASU Office of Public Affairs’ César E. Chávez Leadership Lecture, examines the “unfinished business” of Arizona’s workforce. The report notes reasons why the workforce remains a critical issue: A skilled workforce is critical to expanding the state’s economy. Arizonans must have the skills employers need. Arizona ranks 17th on Milken Institute’s State Science and Technology Index overall, but 33rd among states on the Human Capital Index; Demographic shifts have put workforce issues front and center. Aging and minority growth in light of enduring disparities make Arizona’s current workforce a priority; and, Arizona’s employers will have to look harder at homegrown workers. Conservatively speaking, for everyK-12 student another Arizonan needs help with skills. For example, more than 430,000 Arizonans do not speak English well, while more than 600,000 Arizonans did not finish high school. AZ Workforce looks at big picture facts and figures about the state’s 3-million-strong workforce. By 2030, Arizona may have more than 10 million residents. A key part of the big picture is that the generation replacing older workers has less education than today’s mature workforce.

Because of the urgency of workforce issues and the desire to begin a statewide discussion about workforce goals and choices, the Governor’s Council on Workforce Policy wanted to understand if, and how, program governance and organization are hampering progress and what changes might be beneficial. The council asked Morrison Institute for Public Policy (School of Public Affairs, College of Public Programs, Arizona State University) to: (1) Explore the strengths and weaknesses of the organization of Arizona’s workforce system, particularly at the state level (2) Review how other states have revamped their systems and connected workforce and economic development (3) Recommend options for improving Arizona’s system During the second half of 2003, Morrison Institute for Public Policy talked with more than 60 workforce professionals, business people, and workforce board members across Arizona either individually or in small groups, researched other states’ approaches through interviews with officials in other states and national organizations, analyzed responses to an online survey of selected local workforce investment board members, and reviewed a wide variety of materials on economic, workforce, and community development. This report is the first of many steps for Arizona to reflect and act on workforce development governance and its system, because as Thurgood Marshall said, "You can’t stand still. You must move, and if you don’t move, they will run over you."