In support of the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, a review was conducted of the current state of weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasting for the Southwest. A key element of the review was a workshop that examined the availability, use, accuracy, and value of forecasts, with participants consisting primarily of agency personnel involved in operational forecasting via directly issuing forecasts, providing key data for making forecasts, or serving as a key link for communicating forecasts. The broad range of forecast products encompasses myriad variables, time-scales from minutes to seasons, and lead-times from minutes to over a year. Current forecast products and techniques are reviewed, and implications for use in decision making are discussed. The forecast review identified needs for additional research to be addressed by the CLIMAS Project, including local evaluation of monthly and seasonal climate outlooks, retrospective evaluation of operational water supply outlooks, hindcast reanalysis of probabilistic water supply outlook techniques, and incorporation of climate outlooks into statistical water supply outlook techniques.

Most of the state's cattle ranches rely solely on rain-fed range to support their herds. Drought conditions can result in significant declines in forage production and nutritional quality. Failure to respond to these changes with appropriate management can compound the effects of drought on already stressed vegetation resulting in poor range condition and animal performance. The project discussed in this paper has three broad purposes: first, to compile a profile of Arizona's ranchers, with an emphasis on socioeconomic characteristics of ranchers in the southeastern portion of the state; second, to identify and understand the physical, social, and political-economic factors that make the livelihoods of ranchers vulnerable to climatic variability; and third, to determine whether or not ranchers can mitigate their vulnerability with improved access to information on climate. The project is in its initial stages and thus no conclusive data are available at this time. In this paper we will outline our assumptions in entering the project, our methodology, and some preliminary assessments from our work to date.

Conventional wisdom often views the urban water sector as being among the more sensitive sectors in the arid U.S. Southwest. To test this assumption, the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest analyzed the water budgets of five Arizona cities to determine how severe the impacts would be from the deepest one-, five-, and ten-year droughts on record. Case study sites for the analysis included the Phoenix Active Management Area, Tucson Active Management Area, Santa Cruz Active Management Area, and the Benson and Sierra Vista subwatersheds of the San Pedro River.

As a major component of the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, this study is part of a larger effort to assess the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate variability and change in the southwestern U.S. As importantly, this assessment seeks to fulfill the project’s larger mission of working directly with communities to improve their ability to respond adequately and appropriately to climatic events and climate change. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the utility of a rapid ethnographic approach for (1) conducting a community-level assessment of climate related vulnerability and (2) extending the findings to other assessments.