If Arizona is going to be successful not only in improving minority access to higher education, but more importantly, minority student success in higher education, a systematic approach needs to be developed. The answers to improving minority access and achievement in higher education requires a holistic view of education as a system as well as an integrated look into the drivers of academic success. A fundamental problem exists with current policies designed to improve minority representation in higher education. Arizona’s lack of both a systematic view of the problem and the creation of a framework to evaluate policy ideas are sources of these disappointing results. The purpose of this paper is to fill in the gap by providing a framework of focus for academic success to be used to enhance Arizona’s approach to higher education policy.

The study had three main goals: (1) to assess the vulnerability of groundwater-dependent agriculture to climate variability, (2) to identify historical and current processes of adaptation to the vagaries of climate in the region— these refer to both system wide adaptations and individual farmer’s adaptations, and, (3) to assess the use of and needs for seasonal climate forecast information in agricultural decision making. The report is targeted at institutional stakeholders (i.e., agricultural extension personnel), physical scientists (particularly climatologists), and policymakers (at the level of NOAA and other federal agencies). Specific recommendations are made to these groups in order to improve the delivery of seasonal forecasts, set research priorities, and inform public policy.