If Arizona is going to be successful not only in improving minority access to higher education, but more importantly, minority student success in higher education, a systematic approach needs to be developed. The answers to improving minority access and achievement in higher education requires a holistic view of education as a system as well as an integrated look into the drivers of academic success. A fundamental problem exists with current policies designed to improve minority representation in higher education. Arizona’s lack of both a systematic view of the problem and the creation of a framework to evaluate policy ideas are sources of these disappointing results. The purpose of this paper is to fill in the gap by providing a framework of focus for academic success to be used to enhance Arizona’s approach to higher education policy.

In support of the Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, a review was conducted of the current state of weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasting for the Southwest. A key element of the review was a workshop that examined the availability, use, accuracy, and value of forecasts, with participants consisting primarily of agency personnel involved in operational forecasting via directly issuing forecasts, providing key data for making forecasts, or serving as a key link for communicating forecasts. The broad range of forecast products encompasses myriad variables, time-scales from minutes to seasons, and lead-times from minutes to over a year. Current forecast products and techniques are reviewed, and implications for use in decision making are discussed. The forecast review identified needs for additional research to be addressed by the CLIMAS Project, including local evaluation of monthly and seasonal climate outlooks, retrospective evaluation of operational water supply outlooks, hindcast reanalysis of probabilistic water supply outlook techniques, and incorporation of climate outlooks into statistical water supply outlook techniques.