The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the educational achievement and attainment of Latinos living in Arizona. In short, the educational performance and attainment of Hispanics lags considerably behind that of the state’s non-Hispanic white residents. Moreover, the growth in the number of Hispanics, especially children, has far outpaced that of the non-Hispanic white population, raising the importance of this educational gap. This issue was highlighted in the 2001 Morrison Institute report Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona’s Future.

The specific goal of this report is to assess the future of Hispanic educational performance and attainment in Arizona, but this outlook is dependent to a very sizable extent on the characteristics of the Hispanics living in Arizona. In particular, the educational achievement and attainment of Hispanic immigrants has been substantially less than that of Hispanics born in the United States. Forecasting Hispanic immigration specifically and the characteristics of the Hispanic population generally is extremely difficult for two reasons: severe data limitations, and recent legal and policy changes related to immigration.

In 1993, the Arizona-Mexico Commission and its sister organization, the Comisión Sonora-Arizona, initiated a binational strategic economic planning process to analyze how the two neighboring states could increase their regional competitiveness in the world economy and enhance the overall quality of life for their residents. One of the recommendations of the Strategic Economic Development Vision was to develop a set of indicators as a tool to monitor progress toward the goals of binational economic development. The purpose of the Regional Economic Indicators is to help policy and decision-makers understand and monitor economic changes in the Arizona-Sonora region and to support policies that promote economic transformation, investment and entrepreneurship in the region.

This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.