Morrison Institute for Public Policy Publications Archives

Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

Since 1996, Arizona has been building a comprehensive statewide system of school-to-work opportunities for students from kindergarten through college, supported by a School-to-Work (STW) implementation grant from the U.S. Departments of Labor and Education. After 3 years, a public opinion poll of a 2,200-person random sample drawn from parents, businesses, and educators sought information on these five topics: (1) public awareness of the STW initiative, (2) perceived need for school change; (3) reactions to specific changes embodied by STW; (4) specific attitudes toward STW; and (5) support for the STW initiative.

The polling data showed that awareness of STW among educators is up; increasing percentages of parents and educators report being involved in a regional partnership; and there are high levels of support for changes in the public school system, types of learning programs needed, STW implementation, and the changes in school operations that STW signifies. Educators are increasingly viewing STW as a broad-based career exploration and preparation initiative designed to meet the needs of all students.

Support for STW is also growing along the lines of public policy, tax-paying readiness, and candidate support. On the other hand, fewer businesses than in the past report being aware of STW or involved in local school efforts, although a majority of businesses polled continue to express high levels of support for STW,. More businesses view STW as a program that is limited in scope, serves only select students, and is likely to fail because of entrenched bureaucracy, and growing numbers of parents and teachers are beginning to share these views. The study concluded that policy-level action is needed to keep STW alive in Arizona.

A series of 51 individual “stakeholder” interviews and two focus groups conducted with members of the Pima County business community in fall, 2001, documented significantly divided opinion about the likely economic impacts of the county’s Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP). The results of the stakeholder inquiries were striking. Only one major finding reflected consensus, while several others revealed sharp differences of opinion in the business community about the potential economic impacts of the SDCP and associated initiatives.

What do we mean by "shoes waiting to drop?" We mean the trends that are already well under way — but that we can't quite see yet. These trends could overwhelm us if we don't spot them now and aggressively use our knowledge to plot our course for the future. The five "shoes" highlighted in the report are: A Talent Shake Up; Latino Education Dilemma; A Fuzzy Economic Identity; Lost Stewardship; and The Revenue Sieve.

Does H20 = Growth in Arizona? That is how many people view the water-growth equation -- any introduction of "new" water supplies inevitably stimulates population growth and economic activity. However, the report by Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Growth on the Coconino Plateau, offers some surprisingly contrary conclusions. Completed on behalf of Arizona Department of Water Resources and the Coconino Plateau Watershed, this document is relevant for all regions of rural Arizona. Among the findings: - Some rural areas in the West have constructed major water supply projects only to see most of their towns languish, not prosper. - New water infrastructure in growing rural counties hasn't affected the size so much as the pattern of new development. - Leapfrog sprawl into unincorporated areas has been discouraged in regions where cities and towns hold control over the distribution of new water supplies. Bottom line, water won't automatically produce population growth. But planning for water - how it is supplied and governed - does offer a useful tool for managing future growth. Moreover, it can provide some measure of protection for the environment. We believe this report has important application well beyond northern Arizona. By providing original research and analysis on the water-growth equation, this report helps resolve one of Arizona's most critical issues. As a result, public policy discussions in the future will be able to focus on the state's most important growth drivers and how they can be managed.

Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison Institute for Public Policy. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started.

The state envisions actively promoting GSPED’s (Governor’s Strategic Partnership for Economic Development) vision of economic development, and linking workforce development efforts with GSPED. This means fundamentally changing the way the state does business. And, similar to most "new" initiatives, there are those who embrace the challenges implied and those who prefer the status quo. Prior to forging ahead with a new agenda to link economic and workforce development using GSPED as an organizing framework, the OWDP commissioned a statewide opinion poll to assess public attitudes toward these potentially controversial ideas. This briefing paper summarizes the results of the polling.

In spring 1996, a statewide public poll was conducted to establish baseline measures of public attitudes toward school to work prior to its widespread implementation in Arizona schools. Findings indicated that although 83 percent of administrators had heard something about STW, more than half of the teachers and 7 of 10 parents and businesses had heard nothing. All constituent groups were uniformly high in terms of their support for all five proposed changes that could result from STW.

One component of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative is the evaluation of public awareness and opinions of STW as a concept and a vehicle for education reform. In spring 1996, a statewide public poll of parents, businesses and educators was conducted to establish baseline measures of public attitudes toward STW prior to widespread implementation in the schools. In fall 1996, Arizona public school counselors were surveyed as an additional constituent group. This paper highlights findings from the state's baseline study of counselors' opinions toward STW -- especially as compared with the opinions of other constituent groups.

As part of a multi-faceted evaluation of the state's STW initiative, a survey was conducted to establish baseline measures of counselors' time use and attitudes toward STW prior to its widespread implementation in Arizona schools. This paper discusses counselors' roles and responsibilities--that is, how they currently spend their time. The study will be replicated annually, with the hypothesis that if STW has the impact intended, then one should see marked increases in the time spent counseling students on work/career issues.