Morrison Institute for Public Policy Publications Archives

Arizona faces some big challenges if it is to compete regionally, nationally and globally for the cutting-edge jobs that will help determine our economic future. As hard as state and community leaders are working, the report suggests that Arizona needs even more participation in economic development leadership, more collaboration among economic development groups and a greater sense of urgency. This report identifies a number of important issues that are key to advancing economic development in Arizona.

This follow-up to the 2001 landmark report, "Five Shoes Waiting to Drop on Arizona's Future," focuses on the projected future of the state if Arizona fails to address its Latino educational attainment gap. The publication is more of an economic impact statement than an education report, with indicators pointing out consequences and contributions, depending on action or inaction in closing the gap of Arizona's future workforce.

The biggest economic trend in Arizona over the last decade has been the flat line on various measures of prosperity relative to the national average. Arizona always has been below the national average on measures such as the average wage, earnings per employee, and per capita personal income. However, Arizona compares less favorably now than it did in the 1970s and early 1980s.

The economic underpinnings in Arizona of housing, employment, and financial services have collapsed, as they have almost everywhere else around the nation, albeit deeper here than in most other states. Arizona again must have the wisdom and willpower to rebound. But it will take more than a bold vision, although one is needed. It will take follow-through and collaboration – neither of which have been Arizona’s strong suit in recent years – as well as informed public policy based on what we’ve learned from the past, melded with what we already know about the future. In short, Arizona must prepare itself for the next economy.

Raising Arizona was the challenge of the 20th century. Sustaining Arizona is now the challenge of the 21st. A crucial part of that task is not just understanding today’s knowledge economy, but mastering it.
If the state makes this fundamental transition, the brief history of Arizona’s future will read simply: They succeeded in the second stage. Human capital took its rightful place as a chief component of competitiveness. As a result, the story will go, Arizona moved into the top ranks of economic leadership after years in the second tier. Equity and prosperity resulted too. Most important, the state was ready for the next stage of competition. This happy ending for Arizona, of course, has been envisioned repeatedly over time. And in fact, a variety of human capital policies and programs to achieve it are in place. However, many would say that human capital is an area of unfinished business for Arizona. The Arizona Minority Education Policy Analysis Center (AMEPAC) developed "To Learn and Earn" to highlight the issues and asked Morrison Institute for Public Policy at Arizona State University to support the effort with research and analysis. In turn, AMEPAC will present the issues to Arizona stakeholders for their feedback. This process will kick off a multi-partner series of policy action projects. The first results will be presented in November 2009 at the next human capital conference presented by the Arizona Commission for Postsecondary Education.

Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health.

This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely due to policy choices made in better times. This primer employs a unique methodology to estimate the size of the state’s structural deficit and then explores the mix of forces, including the large permanent tax reductions, that created them. It also highlights some of the dramatic impacts these fiscal challenges are having on service-delivery as well as on local governments. The brief suggests some of the steps state policymakers must take to close their budget gaps over the short and longer term. First, it urges better policymaking, and prods leaders to broaden, balance, and diversify the state’s revenue base while looking to assure a long-haul balance of taxing and spending. And second, it recommends that Arizona improve the information-sharing and budgeting processes through which fiscal problems are understood—so they may ultimately be averted.

This research study clearly articulates the critical need for industry to work in conjunction with educators in order to develop an emphasis on STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) in our schools systems. This partnership is essential for creating a competitive global workforce in Arizona. Aggressive action must be taken now, to fuel the growth of our economy with a properly educated workforce that will improve our standard of living. Changing our culture to celebrate innovation requires a comprehensive plan and collaboration between business, academia and our government. We have an obligation to our children and our country to support this initiative with our time, funds and energy.

Building upon the work of many others who have contributed to quality of life research in Arizona, this report provides a framework for addressing key issues proactively. The data in Arizona Directions are presented in a highly graphic format with must-read information on our competitiveness, individual action steps, opportunities for public-private partnerships, and public policy options – all rooted in a deep understanding that revenue-neutral options are especially important in our current fiscal situation.

In February of 1998, the Pima County Board of Supervisors launched what has evolved into the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan (SDCP) -- a comprehensive effort to protect the Sonoran Desert, guide growth and rationalize land development in the metropolitan Tucson region. Proponents of this planning process maintained that the project would reconcile conflicts between human activities and conservation, providing benefits for both wildlife and economic development. Critics, however, have increasingly alleged that implementing such an initiative will adversely affect land and housing markets, increase taxes and create problems of housing affordability. Over time a pressing need has consequently grown for objective information about the possible fiscal and economic impacts of the conservation programs being assembled by Pima County. This report addresses that need. It is a tool in the form of an impartial framework for assessment that government officials, environmentalists, business people and the general public can use for debate and decision-making.