Arizona State and Local Government Documents Collection

Marketing research in consumer packaged goods shows that consumers’ brand choices, category choices, and purchase volumes are all affected by different factors and in different ways by pricepromotions
and advertising. Research also suggests that brand-loyalty, purchase rates, and inventory behavior are important determinants of category choice. These findings are likely to be true of apples as well.

The Fuji apple variety is relatively new in the U.S. As a new product, questions concern the relative impact of consumer learning by experience, by variety-specific promotion, or by generic apple promotion. A two-stage (LES/LAIDS) model incorporating both types of promotion is used to estimate the effect of generic and variety specific promotion, as well as consumer experience, on the demand for Fuji apples. Estimates show each to have a positive impact, and also show new or specialty apple varieties to be relatively price inelastic, but income elastic. Grower returns to promotion are calculated with an equilibrium displacement model of price changes and producer surplus. Changes in producer surplus provide a base-scenario benefit:cost ratio of 14.73.

A structural latent variable model of apple variety demand is used to analyze the effect of variety specific newspaper advertisement characteristics on variety attraction (preferences), and in turn on variety demand. The influence of advertisement size, the use of color and the Washington apple logo were analyzed. The estimated variety attraction variable is important in explaining demand. Model specifications which exclude this variable tend to understate demand elasticities. Advertisement size has a positive impact on Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala sales. Red Delicious sales are positively influenced by color ads, but negatively affected by ads with the Washington apple logo.

“Commodity promotion” consists of many activities, each designed to contribute to a consumer’s product knowledge or influence tastes. However, both knowledge and tastes are unobservable, or latent, variables influencing demand. This paper specifies a dynamic structural model of fresh fruit demand that treats promotion and other socioeconomic variables as "causal" variables influencing these latent variables. Estimating this state-space model using a Kalman filter approach provides estimates of both the system parameters and a latent variable series. The results show that these latent effects contribute positively to apple and other fruit consumption, while reducing banana consumption.

Many public programs promote diets rich in fruits and vegetables based on evidence on the derived health benefits. Sill, produce consumption in the U.S. lags behind other nations, even its most culturally similar neighbor–Canada. This study uses a structural latent variable model to test the role quality and health information play in explaining observed differences in produce consumption. The Alchian-Allen effect predicts that higher quality, higher absolute margin produce will be exported, suggesting that quality may be an important demand factor in importing nations such as Canada. The results show that dietary health information is significant in expanding demands. Quality also promotes fruit consumption in Canada.

Supermarket retailers make strategic pricing decisions in a high-frequency, repeated game environment both in buying and selling fresh produce. In this context, there is some question as to whether a non-cooperative equilibrium can emerge that produces margins above the competitive level. Supermarket pricing results from tacitly collusive equilibria supported by trigger price strategies played in upstream markets. Upstream activities are, in turn, driven by periodic retail price promotions. We test this hypothesis using a sample of fresh produce pricing data from 20 supermarket chains in markets distributed throughout the U.S. Our results support the existence of tacitly collusive non-cooperative equilibria in upstream and downstream markets.

Widespread obesity in the U.S. is a relatively recent phenomenon, reaching epidemic proportions only in the last 15 years. However, existing research shows that while calorie expenditure through physical activity has not changed appreciably since 1980, calorie consumption has risen dramatically. Consequently, any explanation of obesity must address the reason why consumers tend to overeat in spite of somewhat obvious future health implications. This study tests for an addiction to food nutrients as a potential explanation for the obesity epidemic. Specifically, we use a random coefficients (mixed) logit model applied to household scanner data to test a multivariate version of the rational addiction model of Becker and Murphy and Chaloupka. We find evidence of a rational addiction to all nutrients – protein, fat and carbohydrates – as well as to sodium, but particularly strong evidence of a forward-looking addiction to carbohydrates. The implication of this finding is that price-based policies – sin taxes or produce subsidies that change the expected future costs and benefits of consuming carbohydrate-intensive foods – may be effective in controlling excessive nutrient intake.

For the 2008 AARIN study, 2,105 Maricopa County (AZ) arrestees volunteered to complete the survey instrument and to provide a valid urine specimen for testing. In addition, the arrestees responded to a series of questions related to methamphetamine use, including patterns of use, treatment, drug transactions, sales and manufacturing, and awareness of the Arizona Meth Project. Among those participants, 435 (20.7%) admitted to having used methamphetamine in the 30 days prior to arrest.

In early 2009, an Exploratory Committee was formed to investigate the potential creation of a Veterans Court in Maricopa County, Arizona. The Committee’s initial efforts have focused on examining existing Veterans Courts and determining the size and scope of the problem (i.e., the number of veterans in the county jail). This report provides an overview of information on veterans in the Maricopa County Jail System, drawing on data collected by the Arizona Arrestee Reporting Information Network (AARIN). This report is intended to assist the work of the Veterans Court Exploratory Committee.

Several jurisdictions across the United States have created specialized Veterans Courts, which employ a drug court-adapted therapeutic approach to funnel justice system-involved veterans to counseling and support services that are closely monitored by the court. Despite the emergence of Veterans Courts, little is known regarding the prevalence of military veterans in the criminal justice system, the nature of their cases and prior experiences, as well how combat-related conditions such as PTSD or TBI may have contributed to their involvement in the system. This report seeks to address the knowledge gap in this area through an examination of 2,102 recently booked arrestees in Maricopa County, Arizona. Using interview data from the Arizona Arrestee Reporting Information Network (AARIN), the report characterizes the problems and prior experiences of military veterans, and to compare veteran and nonveteran arrestees along a range of demographic, background and criminal behavior measures. The overall objectives of the paper are to determine the prevalence of military veterans in the Maricopa County arrestee population and to assess the extent to which the arrested veterans differ from the larger arrestee population.