Arizona State and Local Government Documents Collection

Widespread obesity in the U.S. is a relatively recent phenomenon, reaching epidemic proportions only in the last 15 years. However, existing research shows that while calorie expenditure through physical activity has not changed appreciably since 1980, calorie consumption has risen dramatically. Consequently, any explanation of obesity must address the reason why consumers tend to overeat in spite of somewhat obvious future health implications. This study tests for an addiction to food nutrients as a potential explanation for the obesity epidemic. Specifically, we use a random coefficients (mixed) logit model applied to household scanner data to test a multivariate version of the rational addiction model of Becker and Murphy and Chaloupka. We find evidence of a rational addiction to all nutrients – protein, fat and carbohydrates – as well as to sodium, but particularly strong evidence of a forward-looking addiction to carbohydrates. The implication of this finding is that price-based policies – sin taxes or produce subsidies that change the expected future costs and benefits of consuming carbohydrate-intensive foods – may be effective in controlling excessive nutrient intake.

Supermarket retailers make strategic pricing decisions in a high-frequency, repeated game environment both in buying and selling fresh produce. In this context, there is some question as to whether a non-cooperative equilibrium can emerge that produces margins above the competitive level. Supermarket pricing results from tacitly collusive equilibria supported by trigger price strategies played in upstream markets. Upstream activities are, in turn, driven by periodic retail price promotions. We test this hypothesis using a sample of fresh produce pricing data from 20 supermarket chains in markets distributed throughout the U.S. Our results support the existence of tacitly collusive non-cooperative equilibria in upstream and downstream markets.

Many public programs promote diets rich in fruits and vegetables based on evidence on the derived health benefits. Sill, produce consumption in the U.S. lags behind other nations, even its most culturally similar neighbor–Canada. This study uses a structural latent variable model to test the role quality and health information play in explaining observed differences in produce consumption. The Alchian-Allen effect predicts that higher quality, higher absolute margin produce will be exported, suggesting that quality may be an important demand factor in importing nations such as Canada. The results show that dietary health information is significant in expanding demands. Quality also promotes fruit consumption in Canada.

Product-line length, or variety, is a key competitive tool used by retailers to differentiate themselves from rivals. Theoretical models of price and variety competition suggest that both store and product heterogeneity are key determinants of price and variety strategies, but none test this hypothesis in a rigorous way. This study provides the first empirical evidence on supermarket retailers’ combined price and variety strategies using a nested CES modeling framework. Unlike other discrete-choice models of product differentiation, the NCES model is sufficiently general to admit both corner and interior solutions in both store and product choice. The model is estimated using store-level scanner data for all grocery chains in a major West Coast market and finds that retailers do indeed use both price and product-line strategies to compete for market share, but tend to follow moderately cooperative pricing strategies and price and more cooperative strategies in variety.

Supermarkets use periodic price promotions, or “sales” on a regular basis for a variety of products. Relatively little is understood about why supermarkets promote perishable items such as fresh fruits and vegetables, dairy products or meat. The primary contribution of this paper lies in demonstrating that sales among perishable food items are mixed-strategy equilibria among multi-product retailers in which managers choose both the size of the promotion and the number of products to promote.

This paper presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives. Specification tests find that a temperature series for Fresno, California follows a mean-reverting Brownian motion process with discrete jumps and ARCH errors. Based on this process, we define an equilibrium pricing model for cooling degree day weather options. Comparing option prices estimated with three methods: a traditional burn-rate approach, a Black-Scholes-Merton approximation, and an equilibrium Monte Carlo simulation reveals significant differences. Equilibrium prices are preferred on theoretical grounds, so are used to demonstrate the usefulness of weather derivatives as risk management tools for California specialty crop growers.

Native American obesity and the associated health conditions are generally thought to result in part from a genetic predisposition to overeating fats and carbohydrates, called the “thrifty gene.” Although coined by nutritional scientists, this study maintains the origin of the thrifty gene lies in economics. Apparently harmful overconsumption and addiction constitute economically rational behavior if the increment to current utility from adding to one’s stock of “consumption capital” is greater than the present value of utility lost in the future due to ill health and the costs of withdrawal. Tests of these conditions for such “rational addiction” are conducted using two-stage household production approach. The results obtained by estimating this model in a panel of Native and non-Native supermarket scanner data show that both Natives and non-Natives tend to be inherently forward-looking in their nutrient choices, but Natives tend to have far higher long-run demand elasticities for carbohydrates compared to non-Natives. Consequently, reductions in real food prices over time, primarily among foods that are dense in simple carbohydrates, leads Native Americans to over-consume potentially harmful nutrients relative to their traditional diet.

Agricultural cooperatives tend to be riskier than investor-oriented firms, both in a business and financial sense. However, cooperative managers are often reluctant to actively manage risk. Although the “risk management irrelevance proposition” suggests that cooperative managers should be unable to add shareholder value through risk management activities, this study argues that there are several reasons why this is not likely to be the case for cooperatives. Several empirical examples are provided through numerical simulation of pro-forma financial statements from representative agricultural cooperatives. Using mean variance, expected utility and valueat-risk metrics, the results of these simulations show that various risk management strategies can improve the risk-return profile of a typical cooperative.

The Lanchester model of strategic interaction typically considers only two-firm rivalry and one strategic tool. This paper presents an alternative that considers rivalry among several firms using multiple tools. Marketing decisions are dynamically optimal and use equations of motion for market share that are consistent with optimal consumer choice. Using a single-market case study that consists of five years of monthly data on ready to eat cereal sales, advertising, product development investments and new product introductions, we test our model against a similar Lanchester specification. Non-nested specification tests fail to reject the proposed model, but reject the Lanchester alternative.

Brazil currently dominates the world sugar market in almost all aspects. It is the world’s largest producer of sugar cane, the world’s largest exporter of sugar cane, and is one of the world’s largest consumers of sugar cane (fifth in the world). From its sugar cane, Brazil produces not only refined sugar but also anhydrous and hydrous alcohol mainly used as a blend in domestically-consumed gasoline.

The Brazilian government is also highly involved in its sugar-cane market. Blend rates of alcohol to gasoline are dictated to the market by law or decree, and this policy has a direct affect on producer and consumer welfare not only in Brazil but in the world. Looking forward, some advocates of fuel alcohol in Brazil foresee the development of a substantial export market. Currently only about 0.5 to 1.0 billion liters of production are exported annually. To help promote globalization of ethanol, Brazil is currently providing information on the economics and technological aspects of ethanol production and trade worldwide.