Arizona State and Local Government Documents Collection

“Commodity promotion” consists of many activities, each designed to contribute to a consumer’s product knowledge or influence tastes. However, both knowledge and tastes are unobservable, or latent, variables influencing demand. This paper specifies a dynamic structural model of fresh fruit demand that treats promotion and other socioeconomic variables as "causal" variables influencing these latent variables. Estimating this state-space model using a Kalman filter approach provides estimates of both the system parameters and a latent variable series. The results show that these latent effects contribute positively to apple and other fruit consumption, while reducing banana consumption.

A structural latent variable model of apple variety demand is used to analyze the effect of variety specific newspaper advertisement characteristics on variety attraction (preferences), and in turn on variety demand. The influence of advertisement size, the use of color and the Washington apple logo were analyzed. The estimated variety attraction variable is important in explaining demand. Model specifications which exclude this variable tend to understate demand elasticities. Advertisement size has a positive impact on Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala sales. Red Delicious sales are positively influenced by color ads, but negatively affected by ads with the Washington apple logo.

The Fuji apple variety is relatively new in the U.S. As a new product, questions concern the relative impact of consumer learning by experience, by variety-specific promotion, or by generic apple promotion. A two-stage (LES/LAIDS) model incorporating both types of promotion is used to estimate the effect of generic and variety specific promotion, as well as consumer experience, on the demand for Fuji apples. Estimates show each to have a positive impact, and also show new or specialty apple varieties to be relatively price inelastic, but income elastic. Grower returns to promotion are calculated with an equilibrium displacement model of price changes and producer surplus. Changes in producer surplus provide a base-scenario benefit:cost ratio of 14.73.

Marketing research in consumer packaged goods shows that consumers’ brand choices, category choices, and purchase volumes are all affected by different factors and in different ways by pricepromotions
and advertising. Research also suggests that brand-loyalty, purchase rates, and inventory behavior are important determinants of category choice. These findings are likely to be true of apples as well.

The purpose of this document is to provide guidance and detail on implementation of the Flood Control District of Maricopa County Floodplain Regulations and the Maricopa County Drainage Regulations. It presents the County/District philosophy on drainage and floodplain management, and planning for drainage facilities. It contains descriptions of federal, state and county regulations pertaining to such facilities, including links to the various District and County regulations that can be found on the Internet. Most importantly, the policies and minimum standards for implementing the regulations are presented. These policies and standards are based on flood and erosion hazard mitigation strategies that are intended to reduce or eliminate cumulative impacts resulting from development and to enhance public safety.

The 2009 Comprehensive Floodplain Management Plan and Program is intended to be used as a general guide for future decision-making in District activities. The Plan aims to present adequate background information to aid District staff in prioritizing areas for future studies and projects. The Plan identifies historic flooding events, reviews the District's efforts to solve flooding problems, and formulates five-year plans to reduce flooding through flood control project construction, floodplain identification, and planning programs throughout the county.