Arizona State and Local Government Documents Collection

Marketing research in consumer packaged goods shows that consumers’ brand choices, category choices, and purchase volumes are all affected by different factors and in different ways by pricepromotions
and advertising. Research also suggests that brand-loyalty, purchase rates, and inventory behavior are important determinants of category choice. These findings are likely to be true of apples as well.

The Fuji apple variety is relatively new in the U.S. As a new product, questions concern the relative impact of consumer learning by experience, by variety-specific promotion, or by generic apple promotion. A two-stage (LES/LAIDS) model incorporating both types of promotion is used to estimate the effect of generic and variety specific promotion, as well as consumer experience, on the demand for Fuji apples. Estimates show each to have a positive impact, and also show new or specialty apple varieties to be relatively price inelastic, but income elastic. Grower returns to promotion are calculated with an equilibrium displacement model of price changes and producer surplus. Changes in producer surplus provide a base-scenario benefit:cost ratio of 14.73.

A structural latent variable model of apple variety demand is used to analyze the effect of variety specific newspaper advertisement characteristics on variety attraction (preferences), and in turn on variety demand. The influence of advertisement size, the use of color and the Washington apple logo were analyzed. The estimated variety attraction variable is important in explaining demand. Model specifications which exclude this variable tend to understate demand elasticities. Advertisement size has a positive impact on Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala sales. Red Delicious sales are positively influenced by color ads, but negatively affected by ads with the Washington apple logo.

Proposals for reform of the federal multiple-peril crop insurance program for specialty crops seek to change fees for catastrophic insurance from a nominal fifty-dollar per contract registration fee to an actuarially sound premium. Growers argue that this would cause a significant reduction in participation rates, thus impeding the program’s goals of eventually obviating the need for ad hoc disaster payments and worsening the actuarial soundness of the program. The key policy issue is, therefore, empirical one - whether the demand for specialty crop insurance is elastic or inelastic. Previous studies of this issue using either grower or county-level field crop data typically treat the participation problem as either a discrete insure / don’t insure decision or aggregate these decisions to a continuous participation rate problem. However, a grower’s problem is more realistically cast as one of simultaneously making a coverage level / insurance participation decision. Because the issue at hand considers a significant price increase for only one coverage level (50%), differentiating between these decisions is necessary both from an analytical and econometric standpoint. To model this decision, the paper develops a two-stage estimation procedure based on Lee’s multinomial logit-OLS selection framework. This method is applied to a county-level panel data set consisting of eleven years of the eleven largest grape-growing counties in California. Results show that growers choose among coverage levels based upon expected net premiums and the variance of these returns, as well as the first two moments of expected market returns. At the participation-level, the mean and variance of indemnities are also important, as are several variables measuring the extent of self-insurance, such as farm size, enterprise diversity, or farm income. The results also show that the elasticity of 50% coverage insurance is elastic, suggesting that premium increases may indeed worsen the actuarial soundness of the program. These increases will also cause a significant adjustment of growers among coverage levels.

“Commodity promotion” consists of many activities, each designed to contribute to a consumer’s product knowledge or influence tastes. However, both knowledge and tastes are unobservable, or latent, variables influencing demand. This paper specifies a dynamic structural model of fresh fruit demand that treats promotion and other socioeconomic variables as "causal" variables influencing these latent variables. Estimating this state-space model using a Kalman filter approach provides estimates of both the system parameters and a latent variable series. The results show that these latent effects contribute positively to apple and other fruit consumption, while reducing banana consumption.

A massive pile of wood debris caught fire and burned from October 27 to October 31, 2001, in northern Pinal County, Arizona. The fire consumed wood debris from citrus trees that had been stored in an approximately 25-acre area in Pinal County near the Queen Creek area. The fire generated a large quantity of smoke. Persons reported smelling the smoke up to 40 miles away from the fire. Meteorological conditions during the fire intermittently created conditions that limited lift, especially at night, causing smoke to settle in residential neighborhoods in the Queen Creek area. The Arizona Department of Health Services issued public health advisories for the evenings of October 29 and 30. This report summarizes the events that occurred during the fire and analyzes the data collected by the Arizona Department of Health Services and the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality to determine the extent of the public health threat from the fire.

The Rodeo-Chediski Fire Complex began as a small blaze in a remote region of east-central Arizona and within days erupted into the largest wildfire in Arizona history. Fortunately, no lives were lost. However, from June 18, 2002 to the time of its containment on July 7, 2002, the Rodeo-Chediski fire destroyed over 490 structures and 467,000 acres of ponderosa pine and pinyon-juniper woodland—an estimated 500 million to 1.3 billion board feet of timber. Jurisdictions involved included the Fort Apache Indian Reservation, the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, the Tonto National Forest, and private lands adjacent to Highway 260, from the Town of Forest Lakes east to the City of Show Low. Virtually all of the acres burned were in Navajo County, with some damage in the contiguous counties of Coconino, Apache, and Gila Counties. This health assessment describes the fire events and summarizes the resulting public health impacts from the fire.